Amit's Planet

November 02, 2015

giitaayan - Recently posted songs

har ek nazar idhar udhar... ik nayaa taraanaa

Album: Faraar / Dev Anand In Goa

har ek nazar idhar udhar hai beqaraar mere li_e
mahafil kaa dil dha.Dak rahaa hai baar-baar mere li_e

huu.N mai.n 
ik nayaa taraanaa ik nayaa fasaanaa ik na_ii kahaanii huu.N mai.n
ek ra.ng ra.Ngiilii ek chhail chhabiilii ek mast jawaanii huu.N mai.n

ruup kii raanii naam hai meraa dil ta.Dapaanaa kaam hai meraa
ko_ii kahe matavaalii koi kahe bholii bhaalii ko_ii kahe diiwaanii huu.N mai.n 
ek ra.ng ra.Ngiilii ek chhail chhabiilii ...

merii adaa_e.N mere bahaane ko_ii na samajhe ko_ii na jaane
ik pavan jhakolaa ek u.Dan khaTolaa ek yaad khaanii huu.N mai.n
ek ra.ng ra.Ngiilii ek chhail chhabiilii ...

Contributed by Anonymous

November 02, 2015 01:35 PM

jii bhar ke pyaar kar lo

Album: Faraar / Dev Anand In Goa

jii bhar ke pyaar kar lo a.Nkhiyaa.N do chaar kar lo
suno ye raat nahii.n hai ek tiin chaar kii
suno ye raat hai bas do dilo.n ke pyaar kii

dil hai diiwaanaa samaa suhaanaa 
uff ye jawaanii uff ye zamaanaa
jab tak hai.n jhuum sako jhuumate jaanaa haay re jhuumate jaanaa
jii bhar ke pyaar kar lo 

ra.ngii.n fizaaye.n mast hawaaye.n
kal kaun jaane aaye na aaye
jii bhar ke pyaar kar lo 

ulfat ke pyaale pii le pilaa le
kar de ye duniyaa dil ke hawaale
jii bhar ke pyaar kar lo 







Contributed by Anonymous

November 02, 2015 01:18 PM

ek raat kii ye priit

Album: Faraar / Dev Anand In Goa

ek raat kii ye priit ek raat kaa hai giit
kahii.n to.D ke ye sapane ye raat na jaa_e biit

ai chaa.Nd na jaanaa so ai taaro na jaanaa kho
jo bhii ho so ho jag me.n ek bhor kabhii na ho

ye uu.Nchaa aasamaa.N ik baar jo kah de ho
to ye raat maa.Ng luu.N de ke dono.n jahaa.N



Contributed by Anonymous

November 02, 2015 01:06 PM

dil churaa luu.N

Album: Faraar / Dev Anand In Goa

dil churaa luu.N churaa luu.N dil me.n chhupii baat
ba.De-ba.De dil waale bhii rah jaa_e.N malate haath

subah kii a.Nga.Daa_ii huu.N mai.n raat kaa huu.N mai.n Kvaab
duniyaa kii mahafil me.n huu.N mai.n apanaa aap jawaab
mukh dekhe to, dekhe to chandaa khaa_e maat
ba.De-ba.De dil waale bhii ...

muskuraake jidhar dekhuu.N khilane lage phuul
aane jaane waale raahii rastaa jaa_e.N bhuul
mai.n chaahuu.N to, chaahuu.N to din ko karuu.N raat
ba.De-ba.De dil waale bhii ...

bhole-bhaale suurat waale matavaale diladaar
bachake rahanaa phir na kahanaa kiyaa na Khabaradaar
ba.Dii hai zaalim, hai zaalim in naino.n kii ghaat
ba.De-ba.De dil waale bhii ...

Contributed by Anonymous

November 02, 2015 12:57 PM

October 29, 2015

giitaayan - Recently posted songs

raadhe tere aa.Nsuu pii ko rok na paae.Nge

Album: Sanskar

raadhe tere aa.Nsuu pii ko rok na paa_e.Nge
lagan ba.Dhaa le aur shyaam tere dau.De aa_e.Nge

itane hii dukh se man ko kar lenaa chuur nahii.n
tere gokul se mohan kii mathuraa duur nahii.n
suune aa.Ngan tere vRRindaavan ban jaa_e.Nge
lagan ba.Dhaa le aur ...

kabhii kabhii aa jaatii hai naino.n me.n tere namii
abhii pyaar me.n kamii hai tere tyaag me.n abhii kamii
kamii na ho to jaane vaale kaise jaa_e.Nge 
lagan ba.Dhaa le aur ...

Contributed by Anonymous

October 29, 2015 02:54 PM

October 23, 2015

giitaayan - Recently posted songs

koii samajhaave ye priit sakhii kyaa hai

Album: Lagan

koii samajhaave ye priit sakhii kyaa hai
koii samajhaave
dil muii kyaa hai, ye riit muii kyaa hai
koii samajhaave

naar navelii nahii.n ye pahelii
buujh na paave ki priit sakhii kyaa hai
koii samajhaave

bha.Nvaraa gaave kalii musakaave
koii batalaave ye riit sakhii kyaa hai
koii samajhaave

sab koii jaane mai.n nahii.n jaanuu.N 
ye man_har se le.n siikh sakhii kyaa hai
koii samajhaave

Contributed by Vijay Kumar K

October 23, 2015 03:32 PM

October 20, 2015

giitaayan - Recently posted songs

ek dil ka do jahaa.N se

Album: (Non-film)

ek dil kaa do jahaa.N se haath (?) uThaa sakataa huu.N mai.n
jiite jii lekin tumhe.n kyuu.N kar bhuulaa sakataa huu.N mai.n

chaa.Ndanii raato.n kii nii.nde.n zi.ndagaanii kaa sakuun
in Kazaano.n ko bhii tum bar (?) se luTaa sakataa huu.N mai.n

pyaar kii nazaro.n se mujhako tum agar dekhaa karo
chaa.Nd suuraj se bhii zyaadaa jagamagaa sakataa huu.N mai.n

Contributed by Prithviraj Dasgupta

October 20, 2015 11:14 PM

October 16, 2015

giitaayan - Recently posted songs

ek din aur gayaa

Album: Door Ka Raahi

ek din aur gayaa haay roke na rukaa
chhaayaa a.Ndhiyaaraa
aaj bhii naav na aayii, aayaa na khevan_haaraa
ek din aur gayaa ...

kaalii naagin-sii ghirii rainaa kajaraarii
sahamii-sahamii-sii hai ye nagarii hamaarii
de ke aavaaz thakaa, o~ de ke aavaaz thakaa
man dukhiyaaraa, aaj bhii naav na aayii ...

phir vahii raat kaThin, chhup gay taare
abhii se bujhane lage diip hamaare
duur ba.Dii duur saveraa, duur ba.Dii duur ujaalaa
duur hai aashaao.n kaa phuul kinaaraa
aaj bhii naav na aayii, aayaa na khevan_haaraa ...

Contributed by Vijay Kumar K

October 16, 2015 06:17 AM

September 08, 2015

giitaayan - Recently posted songs

tum ko to karo.Do.n saal hue

Album: Sambandh

tum ko to karo.Do.n saal hu_e batalaao gagan gambhiir
is pyaarii-pyaarii duniyaa me.n kyo.n alag-alag taqadiir

milate hai.n kisii ko bin maa.Nge hii motii
ko_ii maa.Nge lekin bhiikh nasiib na hotii
kyaa sochake hai maalik ne rachii ye dora.ngii tasviir
is pyaarii pyaarii duniyaa me.n ...

kuchh qismat waale sukh se amR^it piite
kuchh dil par rakhakar patthar jeevan jiite
kahii.n man pa.nchhii aakaash u.De kahii.n paa.Nv pa.Dii za.njiir
is pyaarii pyaarii duniyaa me.n ...





Contributed by Anonymous

September 08, 2015 10:29 PM

September 07, 2015

Brad DeLong - Grasping Reality with Both Hands

September 02, 2015

Dark Reading: Dark Reading Column

New - bogleheads.org: Bogleheads

Re: AQR/Asness - How Can a Strategy Still Work If Everyone Knows About It?

TradingPlaces wrote:There are two purposes for all the AQR "research" / marketing:

- drum up interest in their fund, and increase AUM, thereby increasing their fees,

- keep pushing the factor ideas to everyone ELSE. By having better statistics, information extraction, risk models, etc, in-house, at AQR, they only benefit if outsiders try to implement do-it-yourself versions of the models.


I think someone needs to try "reading" a little more of their research before passing judgement

by Maynard F. Speer at September 02, 2015 06:50 AM

Re: Chip credit cards, do I need to get a PIN?

archbish99 wrote: There are schemes where a PC peripheral (think smart-card reader, if you have one for work) would enable a remote site to interact with the card, providing similar security for card-not-present transactions. However, getting every user in the world to put one of these devices on their computers and getting online merchants to adopt it would be... challenging.


Here in Switzerland I have had 2 different credit cards. With each, I have the option that when I use it online, it goes to another secure site where I put in a password that approves using it for the online transaction. Not all online stores supported the extra password step; in which case, it just works as a card-not-present transaction.

by bonaire27 at September 02, 2015 06:48 AM

Re: Co-Workers Think I'm Doomed Based on Portfolio Perf.

all the above info I certainly agree with.

I've been retired almost 3 years, and am still aggressive in my TSP. 50/25/25 in the C/S/I funds.

I'm down about 10% over the past 2 weeks, but that's OK. 60 years old, and I'll revisit the TSP in 5-8 years.

I DO agree with the poster above to keep $$$ in the TSP, so you have the option of moving funds BACK.

I'll be aggressive for now, but in my mid-late 60's, I plan on going exclusively into the L Income & G funds.

G NEVER loses money, and the interest rates adjust monthly I believe. I can't beat that with a stick. Like some

other poster(s) above said, they'd LOVE to have access to the TSP. Don't lose that option.

Other than that, I think you're doing fine...keep up the good work ! Use the calculator on TSP and see what

your current balance MAY be, (including max contributions) in 10+ years. You'd be surprised. :happy

by Jerry55 at September 02, 2015 06:47 AM

Re: Bogleheads Los Angeles meetings

EyeYield wrote:Eating and drinking at a popular, loud, restaurant on a Saturday night sounds like good fun, but not a very good environment for a meeting, in my opinion. There's no reservations at this place and no rooms available for private parties. How are over 14 people supposed to be together?

When we were offered a private residence, an environment that's controllable, it sounded like a place where a meeting could occur. Why was no one interested in that?


I yield to EyeYield; while I will still plan to attend this meeting regardless, in the absence of a private meeting room and a confirmation that it is quite loud I believe we should look elsewhere for a more suitable location.

by triceratop at September 02, 2015 06:31 AM

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

theunknowntech wrote:Mmmmm, what was that thing about being greedy when others are fearful?

There are plate tectonic issues at play. And we're dealing with a regime (China) that is just starting to understand itself. Let them have it out.


Exactly, buy and buy some more

by fourwedge at September 02, 2015 06:20 AM

विशाल शेखर - Google समाचार

Flipkart, Practo CEOs get top rating from staff - Economic Times


ET Retail

Flipkart, Practo CEOs get top rating from staff
Economic Times
Among major IT compani es in India, Infosys CEO Vishal Sikka gets the highest approval percentage. Sikka, who became the CEO of the Bengaluru-based IT service provider last August, has been approved by 95 per cent of the 12,000 people who reviewed the ...
Flipkart, Practo CEOs get top ratingET Retail

सभी २ समाचार लेख »

September 02, 2015 06:13 AM

Arun Shourie - Google News

Boycott, not Sehwag: Modi's record on economic reforms contrasts unfavourably ... - Economic Times (blog)


Boycott, not Sehwag: Modi's record on economic reforms contrasts unfavourably ...
Economic Times (blog)
Vajpayee understood the absurdity of the government wasting taxpayer money on running bakeries and hotels when it could instead be focussing on improving roads, schools and hospitals. Under the indefatigable Arun Shourie, India began rolling back the ...

September 02, 2015 06:13 AM

New - bogleheads.org: Bogleheads

Re: Help with windfall - how to invest $1M wisely at 32?

Thott wrote:I received a windfall from a company exit (~1M), and have spent about 2 years sitting on the sidelines feeling anxious that I might squander my good fortune with poor decisions. I've read the Boglehead's Guide to Investing, Rick Ferri's and Larry Swedroe's books, and most of the BH wiki. Recently, I've read many related threads about similar portfolio planning situations. I'm still quite new to investing and would really appreciate some guidance for my situation.

Goals:
- design a tax-efficient and moderately simple portfolio for wealth preservation
- some room for growth (I still plan to work for many years)
- Plan to purchase a home in the next 5 years (not necessarily in CA)


This (being unsure what to do with a large windfall) is a most excellent problem to have.

It's hard to say from your goals how much money you'd like to accumulate before retiring, but if you have modest needs, then it seems like you've already won the game. Given your hesitation thus far I'd say you have a fairly low risk tolerance too, so I'd invest the windfall in a relatively conservative (for your age) 50:50 portfolio and do my best to forget all about it, apart from rebalancing and perhaps the occasional tax loss harvesting, for the next couple of decades. (Note: I don't think the hesitation per se is a bad thing; on the contrary I think your patience and careful research are to be commended.)

by randomizer at September 02, 2015 06:11 AM

?Wash sale and 529s

Recently swapped to UT529 which uses Vanguard funds. Shortly will do some more TLH in Vanguard taxable account with same funds. Can my monthly 529 contributions (529 owned by me with kids as beneficiaries) trigger wash sale?

by TheGipper at September 02, 2015 06:09 AM

Re: Roth 401k Help

^ I really can't argue with that, but I will explain my thinking a little further.

OP,

I write not to convince, but to edify (hopefully).

If we were talking about investing in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund - Investor Class (ER 0.17%), I'd still say it's good enough. Since the OP's U.S. Equity All Cap Fund would be the same category of fund at a lower ER 0.11%, I have no problem with a few more basis points to complete the Mid/Small cap exposure.

Come to think of it, if I were to cobble together an equivalent "total U.S. stock" arrangement with the 401k's S&P 500 Fund (ER 0.05%) and the expensive U.S. Equity Sm/Mid Cap Fund (ER 0.51%), the weighted ER would be a mere 0.14%, which is still less than the more than acceptable Vanguard Total Market - Investor Class fund.

But, yeah, I've set up a bit of a straw man above and it would not be a mistake to choose the S&P 500 fund, instead.

by pingo at September 02, 2015 06:05 AM

India Real Time

In Yoga, Why the Ranks of Teachers Are Growing at a Faster Rate Than Students

People in droves are training to become yoga teachers, but many have no intention of leading a room full of downward dogs.

by Rachel Bachman at September 02, 2015 06:04 AM

Zero Hedge

Former CIA Boss and 4-Star General: U.S. Should Arm Al Qaeda

Former CIA boss and 4-star general David Petraeus – who still (believe it or not) holds a lot of sway in Washington – suggests we should arm Al Qaeda to fight ISIS.

He’s not alone …

As we’ve previously shown, other mainstream American figures support arming Al Qaeda … and ISIS.

The U.S. actually did knowingly support Al Qaeda in Libya. And also in Syria.

And we actually ARE supporting ISIS to some extent.

Truly, America’s foreign policy is insane.










by George Washington at September 02, 2015 06:04 AM

New - bogleheads.org: Bogleheads

Re: TLH conclusion in my situation

I would probably just wait 30 days.


May need to wait longer if the September dividend in the IRA gets reinvested...

by stlutz at September 02, 2015 06:01 AM

Re: Dave Ramsey's Advice - Evaluated with Actual Returns from His Company's 401K

Interesting numbers. I am wondering what if the funds are compared with index funds with similar style.

by RandomPointer at September 02, 2015 06:00 AM

Miss Malini

Guess Which Bollywood Celebrity Hopped On To Alia Bhatt’s Favourite Shoe Trend!

Alia Bhatt & Kajol

Alia Bhatt & Kajol

Yes I know, Alia Bhatt didn’t single handedly come up with the sneaker wedge trend. But you’ve got to admit, she played a big part in making the trend wearable in India. After she relentlessly wore it during her Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania promotions (to be fair, she’d hurt her foot), almost everyone in the Bollywood brigade hopped on to the trend. The latest entrant is Kajol!

Kajol

Kajol

She was spotted at the airport last evening in an over sized sweater, jeans and a pair of beige sneaker wedges – à la Alia Bhatt.

Kajol

Kajol

Better late than never Kajol!

Pix: Viral Bhayani for MissMalini

The post Guess Which Bollywood Celebrity Hopped On To Alia Bhatt’s Favourite Shoe Trend! appeared first on MissMalini.

by Anushka Mulchandani at September 02, 2015 06:00 AM

Whoa! This Video Of Lisa Haydon Doing Yoga On Water Is Giving Us #FitnessGoals!

Lisa Haydon for Swati Vijaivargie LFW AW15 Off The Runway on Exclusively.com (Black and Gold circualr skirt, jacket and printed bandeau)

Lisa Haydon 

The long-legged dusky dame, Lisa Haydon is super sexy. And going by her perfect 10 body, it is not hard to guess that she’s a fitness junkie. As we’ve already told you, recently, the gorgeous girl was vacationing in Turkey and Greece with her boyfriend, Dino. She has been posting quite a lot of photos from her trip on Instagram. And she even posted a video of herself, which left me awestruck. Currently, I am on my 17335208389th attempt to lose weight and THIS clip of Lisa doing Surya Namaskars has definitely inspired me A LOT to stick to my plan. Watch her doing yoga on water while her beau looks on.

yogini on the way to simi #sunsalutation #practicemaybemakesperfect #splash #bellyflop 

A video posted by Lisa Haydon (@lisahaydonofficial) on

HOW CAN SOMEONE BE SO HOT?

The post Whoa! This Video Of Lisa Haydon Doing Yoga On Water Is Giving Us #FitnessGoals! appeared first on MissMalini.

by Swagata Dam at September 02, 2015 05:59 AM

Hrithik Roshan Reacts To The Rumours Of His Link-Up With Kangana Ranaut

Hrithik Roshan

Hrithik Roshan

Hrithik Roshan and Sonam Kapoor made an appearance yesterday to promote the song Dheere Dheere, their new single for Bhushan Kumar that’s a remake of the original Dheere Dheere from Aashiqui. It was a rather awkward event all round, but what was surprising was when a journalist threw out a question to Hrithik – “What do you have to say about your link-up rumours with Kangana?” There have been rumours for a while, of course, but you gotta wonder how the journo had the balls to ask that question.

Hrithik seemed pretty stumped too, because after a split second pause, he just said, “Oh my God! Mindblowing.” Sonam then interjected, saying, “He just said he was single.” (Not entirely accurate, since she said she was single when asked who in her life she’d dedicate Dheere Dheere to. Hrithik, meanwhile, just said there was no one in his life that he wanted to dedicate the song to.)

That was, of course, the end of it – Hrithik didn’t seem to want to say anymore, the PR rep in the corner intervened, and the host tried to move on to something else. Hmm!

The post Hrithik Roshan Reacts To The Rumours Of His Link-Up With Kangana Ranaut appeared first on MissMalini.

by Rashmi Daryanani at September 02, 2015 05:52 AM

Zero Hedge

The Alarming Regularity of 6 and 7-Sigma Events Illustrates Why a Deep Understanding of Banker-Induced Fraud is a Necessity

In today's SmartKnowledgeU_Vlog_005, we discuss why an intelligent investment strategy is impossible without incorporation of market & banker fraud analysis, something that we have incorporated heavily into our strategies since we launched our company in mid-2007. Understanding market fraud allowed us to position our portfolio short the US stock market before the fall out occurred these past few weeks, as we even publicly posted this warning about an "imminent" US market collapse to our twitter account on 19 August, 2015, just one day before the US stock markets began free-falling.

 

 smartknowledgeu 2015 US stock market crash prediction

 

In addition to shorting US markets and closing out positions at very quick and substantial gains, our understanding of banker pricing fraud in gold and silver futures markets also allowed us to short gold and silver into the US stock market free fall and quickly close out our short gold and short silver positions respectively for very quick +5.27% and +16.24% gains. In our latest vlog below, we discuss why understanding the meaning behind these 5, 6, 7, and even 16-sigma events that are occuring with alarming regularity in global financial markets has been critical to maintaining positive yields this year in the short-term, will be critical to maintaining strongly positive yields over the long-term, and is necessary in   formulating intelligent low-risk strategies to cope with the massive asset and market volatility that we have been experiencing, and that will likely accelerate in future months.

 

smartknowledgeu_vlog_005: why formulating intelligent investment strategies without a deep understanding of banker fraud is impossible

 to watch the above vlog, please click the image above


About the Vlogger: JS Kim is the Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist of SmartKnowledgeU. His Crisis Investment Opportunities newsletter has respectively outperformed the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, the Australian ASX200, the London FTSE and the US S&P 500 by +125.53%, +76.92%, +69.07% and +27.63% (investment period from inception on 15 June, 2007 until present day on 2 September, 2015). For more information and access to our annual returns, please visit smartknowledgeu.com










by smartknowledgeu at September 02, 2015 05:50 AM

Miss Malini

J.K. Rowling Reveals What Harry Potter’s Children Are Upto & The Internet Loses Its Mind!

Harry Potter

Harry Potter

It’s been so many years since the last Harry Potter book and movie has been out, but we Potterheads cannot get enough of whatever nugget of information Queen Rowling gives us. I think J.K Rowling knows this, that’s why she reminded us of James Sirius Potter (Harry and Ginny‘s firstborn) first day at Hogwarts (it was September 1st yesterday REMEMBER?). Guess which house he was sorted in? I know you know, it’s not really much of a surprise.

The Internet obviously had a lot to say!

 

 

 

And Teddy Lupin is in Hufflepuff, just like his mom! Yay!

 

 

 

All this makes me so happy, it’s just mad. Just have one request from the Queen, though, PLEASE tell us which house Albus Severus Potter gets into and please consider putting him in Slytherin, they really need good people.

The post J.K. Rowling Reveals What Harry Potter’s Children Are Upto & The Internet Loses Its Mind! appeared first on MissMalini.

by Shreemi Verma at September 02, 2015 05:47 AM

Zero Hedge

The Alarming Regularity of 6 and 7-Sigma Events Illustrates Why a Deep Understanding of Banker-Induced Fraud is a Necessity

In today's SmartKnowledgeU_Vlog_005, we discuss why an intelligent investment strategy is impossible without incorporation of market& banker fraud analysis, something that we have incorporated heavily into our strategies since we launched our company in mid-2007. Understanding market fraud allowed us to position our portfolio short the US stock market before the fall out occurred these past few weeks, as we even publicly posted this warning about an "imminent" US market collapse to our twitter account on 19 August, 2015, just one day before the US stock markets began free-falling.

 

 smartknowledgeu 2015 US stock market crash prediction

 

In addition to shorting US markets and closing out positions at very quick and substantial gains, our understanding of banker pricing fraud in gold and silver futures markets also allowed us to short gold and silver into the US stock market free fall and quickly close out our short gold and short silver positions respectively for very quick +5.27% and +16.24% gains. In our latest vlog below, we discuss why understanding the meaning behind these 5, 6, 7, and even 16-sigma events that are occuring with alarming regularity in global financial markets has been critical to maintaining positive yields this year in the short-term, will be critical to maintaining strongly positive yields over the long-term, and is necessary to  intelligently formulating strategies to cope with the massive asset volatility that we have been experiencing and that will likely accelerate in future months.

 

smartknowledgeu_vlog_005: why formulating intelligent investment strategies without a deep understanding of banker fraud is impossible

 to watch the above vlog, please click the image above


About the Vlogger: JS Kim is the Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist of SmartKnowledgeU. His Crisis Investment Opportunities newsletter has respectively outperformed the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, the Australian ASX200, the London FTSE and the US S&P 500 by +125.53%, +76.92%, +69.07% and +27.63% (investment period from inception on 15 June, 2007 until present day on 2 September, 2015). For more information and access to our annual returns, please visit smartknowledgeu.com










by smartknowledgeu at September 02, 2015 05:46 AM

Miss Malini

Madhuri Dixit Just Gave Fitness Freaks The Best Surprise Ever!

Madhuri Dixit (Source: Tumblr)

Madhuri Dixit (Source: Tumblr)

We all know about Madhuri Dixit‘s Dance with Madhuri and now her fitness project has touched new heights. The actress’s company has joined hands with a Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgeon and their new venture is called BollyOut.

Her husband, Dr. Sriram Madhav Nene said,

When we looked at the literature, it was obvious that dancers literally had a leg up on others with regard to staying in shape. Dance was found to be equivalent and in many cases superior to a normal workout. So we put it to the test by putting heart rate monitors on MD during her Dancercise class. What we found is that she had lost 400 calories in 15 minutes.

Whoa! 400 Calories in 15 minutes? I’m definitely going to go for it. And if you want to join it too then BollyOut is available at gyms and clubs now.

The post Madhuri Dixit Just Gave Fitness Freaks The Best Surprise Ever! appeared first on MissMalini.

by Aayushi Bhargava at September 02, 2015 05:42 AM

Leaked: The Next Jhalak Elimination!

 

Raftaar

Raftaar

Jhalak Dikhhla Jaa is drawing to a close as week after week we’re losing contestants. Raftaar, who’s no stranger to the bottom two, finally had to bid adieu to the show. He fought it out with Scarlett Wilson, but couldn’t survive.

Will you miss Raftaar?

The post Leaked: The Next Jhalak Elimination! appeared first on MissMalini.

by Priyam Saha at September 02, 2015 05:41 AM

Chris Pirillo

Tech Versus Toys

Hello, My Gnomies!We're inching closer to the event that every geek has been waiting for all year. At least, every geek that I happen to communicate with on a regular basis.Of course, I'm referring to Force Friday - what event did you think I was talking about? September 9th for the next set of...

Read the full article on http://chris.pirillo.com/

by Chris Pirillo at September 02, 2015 05:34 AM

India Real Time

Why India’s Reversal on MAT Tax Matters to Foreign Investors

India said Tuesday that it wouldn't go through with plans to apply a controversial tax to international portfolio investors, hoping to calm concerns about the country amid global market volatility.

by Rajesh Roy and Shefali Anand at September 02, 2015 05:33 AM

FFFFOUND! / EVERYONE

The Coffeehouse Investor

Wealth is Work

there is no free lunch2

With the recent retirement of Jon Stewart from The Daily Show, we thought we would share a small part of his interview in 2009 with Wall Street guru, Jim Cramer. It wasn’t the brutal interrogation or the frustration Jon displayed during the interview that was compelling, but rather the topic Jon challenges Jim on in 2009 is the same song and dance still occurring on Wall Street in 2015. Around minute 10 of the video, Jon discusses a topic we come to know as our third Coffeehouse Investor principle: there is no such thing as a free lunch. “Anytime you sell people the idea that… sit back and you’ll get 10-20% on your money, don’t you always know that that’s going to be a lie… When are we are going to realize in this country that our wealth is work?” As investors, we must become savvy media viewers and skeptical headline readers besides responsible stewards of our own money.

by The Coffeehouse Investor at September 02, 2015 05:14 AM

craigslist | computer gigs in san diego

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September 02, 2015 04:45 AM

DreamHost Status

LiveChat temporarily unavailable Tuesday, September 1, 2015 (RESOLVED)

Our LiveChat system is temporarily unavailable. We are working on bringing back the chat as soon as possible — in the meantime, please contact support if you have any issues. Thank you for your patience.

Update: September 1, 10:45pm PDT:We are now back online and working. Please come chat with us, we miss you! We apologize for the problems this caused!

Update: September 1, 9:42pm PDT: We are working to bring chat back online, and are told we should be able to re-instate at approximately 6am PDT. We are doing everything in our power to restore this sooner, if possible.

by Elizabeth at September 02, 2015 04:20 AM

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September 02, 2015 04:13 AM

Andrew Tobias

Herding Cats

Everybody talks about it — “it’s like herding cats” — but here are the men who do it.




You won’t want to miss that.  But once you’ve seen the cat herders in action, you may want to turn your attention to the unsettled nature of the markets.  For that, I’ve gotten permission from Aristides’ Chris Brown to share with you his monthly letter, emailed yesterday from Toledo.  Chris is scary smart, so I pay attention.

1 September 2015

Dear Partners,

Aristides Fund LP celebrated its seventh anniversary by posting its best August since 2009, gaining 1.47%.  . . .  One hundred thousand dollars invested at the inception of Aristides Fund LP, August 15, 2008, is now worth $344,150, representing growth of 19.1% annualized. . . .

Several of you have asked for our thoughts on the recent market sell-off, so, although we have no special powers of market timing and no economic crystal ball, here goes. In the very short term, market sentiment was excessively fearful last week, meaning that it is unlikely that the market goes meaningfully (more than 2-3% below) the lows from August 24 over the next 3-5 weeks. Historically, it would also be more likely than not that we do have some sort of retest of those lows in the very near term.

Longer-term, we remain very guarded in our outlook for equities. Mebane Faber recently (May 31) published a great article called “10 Bearish Charts, 1 Bullish Chart” in which he points out that April 2015 had the highest level of U.S. corporate stock buybacks ever, that May 2015 had the highest ever value of mergers and acquisitions, that the average price of these M&A deals was 12.4x EV/EBITDA year-to-date (highest on record), that the percent of initial public offerings that are unprofitable companies is the highest ever, that the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio is the 4th highest it has ever been (next to 2000, 1929, and 2007), that the price-to-sales, price-to-book, and price-to-cash flow ratio of the median S&P 500 stock are at all-time highs, that % of portfolio allocation to equities has only been higher in the late 1990s and the late 1960s, that margin debt is at all-time highs, and that average Investor’s Intelligence bullish sentiment in 2014 was the second-highest on record.

Equity bulls counter that the “equity risk premium,” the gap between the earnings yield on stocks and the yield on bonds, is very large currently (i.e. stocks are cheap relative to bonds), and likewise that there are factors that have permanently raised after-tax corporate profit margins (e.g. better corporate management, more oligopolies, less power of labor to demand higher wages, and creative tax management strategies).

If we’ve learned one thing from the great economic prosperity/bull market from 1982-2000, and the subsequent unwind, it is that economies look a lot better when the level of debt-to-GDP is on the rise, and that it’s a pretty hard slog when debt-to-GDP is contracting (or, for that matter, it has been quite a headwind, compared to what we had grown accustomed to, just to have debt-to-GDP stay the same). This is probably the most important and most underappreciated aspect of long-term economic cycles.

Debt-to-GDP in the United States has declined very modestly since 2008, from a very high peak, but is still much closer to a top than a bottom. Therefore, it’s probably safe to argue that downside risks to the economy outweigh the prospects for a new economic boom. Combine this with high valuations, and stocks are vulnerable.

Another immensely important yet underappreciated principal of the markets is that things don’t matter until they do. Just as the massive credit buildup in the U.S. was obvious to some smart folks for years, it didn’t matter to markets in 1994; it didn’t matter until it started to reverse itself, very quickly, in 2007.

The world’s second largest economy, China, has been on the biggest fixed capital investment binge in the history of earth for about the last fifteen years (or roughly double the length of time of the second-longest such binge). You might think of China as a very export-driven economy, but that is only part of the story. Net exports (exports less imports) account for only about 4 percent of Chinese GDP. The amount of China’s economy dependent upon fixed capital investment is astronomical. For example, from 2011 to  2013, in three years, China produced more concrete than the United States did in the entire 20th century.

Certainly the Chinese people are well-educated, hardworking, and industrious, but the Chinese “economic miracle” had another tailwind as well. Any guesses what it might be?

Surprise! It’s debt. While China’s economy has grown, China’s debt, especially corporate debt and local government debt, has grown much more dramatically.

People who say “The fall of the Chinese stock market is inconsequential to the wealth of most Chinese people” are correct in the same way that people who said “Subprime loans are a very small part of the loan market and an inconsequential part of U.S. GDP” were correct in 2006-2007. The dramatic rise and fall of the Shanghai index in the last 12 months is a symptom of debt becoming too widely available, and abused for speculative purposes (margin lending on stocks, in this particular instance), followed by the beginning of a contraction of debt.

Although even margin debt is a relatively small part of China’s economy, the willingness of Chinese individuals to extend credit to Chinese corporations is a key part of the Chinese economy. Chinese GDP has been growing more slowly than Chinese debt for several years now, and if credit conditions tighten in China, the world’s second largest economy is likely to slow considerably.

Already, key commodity inputs that had previously been buoyed by Chinese demand, including iron ore, copper, and oil, have fallen dramatically. The same is true for the currencies of countries whose economies heavily depend on exporting commodities, such as Brazil, Australia, Russia, and Canada.

Many countries are heavily dependent upon exports to China. Nearly 30% of Australia’s exports are delivered to China. Chile, Peru, and Brazil together send roughly 20% of their exports to China, so any slowdown in China could hurt an already fragile South American economy. Likewise, South Korea and Japan send China 24% and 18% of their exports, respectively. Even 10% of European Union exports (roughly 1.1% of the entire EU economy) go directly to China.

China has already devalued the yuan slightly, and has spent a small fraction of its considerable foreign currency reserves defending the currency and its stock market. If the yuan needs to depreciate much further, as some observers are speculating, the effects on China’s economic Asian competitors, such as Japan, could be profound.

To make a long story short, China has accounted for a very substantial portion of global GDP growth in the post-2008 period, so in a world that is heavily indebted and barely growing, a significant economic slowdown and currency devaluation in China would be bad news for many industries in many nations.

We aren’t scrambling to put on China-related shorts. Some other investors, like Jim Chanos, who are better at discerning macroeconomic trends than we are, have already had such positions on for more than a year, and have made a lot of money in the process. We don’t know how far along things are, or how bad they will actually get, and we know that by the time that even guys sitting in Toledo, Ohio, have access to the narrative, maybe the bottom is in or at the very least it’s probably about time for a counter-trend rally. But, nevertheless, it’s important to respect the fact that not all is rosy in the global economy.

Most of our thoughts these days, as usual, are on finding good opportunities one company at a time, both on the long side, and to a lesser extent on the short side. Our broad market hedges obviously did well in August, but we also made considerable money elsewhere. Unwired Planet performed well for us thus far, and the story is still very underappreciated, in spite of us writing about it on SeekingAlpha.  MAST Capital privately bought a large chunk of UPIP stock for $1.00 last month. Yet the stock is still below 80 cents in the open market!

Southern Missouri Bancorp finally got the rally it should have had three months earlier (when it said on a conference call that they would pay their SBLF funds back without a capital raise, unless an attractive acquisition came along).

EMCORE, which is still mostly a pile of cash, rallied off of strong earnings.

Our SAExploration bonds traded up even as oil (which we are short as a hedge) traded down; the price isn’t a fluke as (1) we sold $1 million face (we could have sold more but didn’t want to), and (2) Fidelity exchanged $10 million face worth of bonds for stock essentially priced at about $4.25 per share, well above the current market price. The bonds still yield about 25% to maturity.

Our small shorts in Mobileye (a great company that is massively, massively overpriced) and 6D Global Technologies (a bad company that is massively, massively overpriced) contributed meaningfully.

Kroger did not perform well, but was noteworthy in that we were able to buy 20,000 shares on the day of the market panic at an incredible price, and sell it 5 points higher about an hour later.

Of course, several positions lost money, as you’d expect with the market down six percent, but nothing got hit too badly, and all-in-all, we held up pretty well.

Thank you for your partnership. It’s anyone’s guess what the rest of the year will bring to the markets, but we will certainly try our best to continue to keep our assets buffered and to find some good opportunities along the way.

None of this is to say what will happen next — or that you should do anything about this (I bought a few shares of UPIP at 77 cents).  If you’re in the stock market with money you won’t need to touch for many years, which is the only sensible way to be in the market, the last thing you want to do is jump in and out.  But won’t you feel more knowledgeable around the barbecue this weekend?  “Do you know, guys: China produced more concrete in three years than we did in the entire 20th Century?  Pass me the relish?”

 

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by A.T. at September 02, 2015 04:02 AM

elephant journal

3 Reasons Why I Refuse to Break Up With My News Feed.

I get the allure of walking away from social media. I’ve spent hours of my short, precious life scrolling through my friends’ vacation pictures, analyzing status updates from 2007 and mindlessly watching (and rewatching) videos of puppies and babies. I’ve over-analyzed friends' annoyingly vague 3 a.m. posts and have become embittered by photos of friends out drinking when my phone hasn’t buzzed in hours.

by Nicole Cameron at September 02, 2015 03:57 AM

lines and colors :: a blog about drawing, painting, illustration, comics, concept art and other visual arts

Ben Lo

Ben Lo, concept art
Originally from Toronto and now based in Montreal, concept artist Ben Lo has credits that include Bioshock Infinite and a Need for Speed title. He is currently working for Bioware on a new Mass Effect title.

Lo’s digital painting style ranges from quick and efficient to refined and subtle, with much attention given to variations in texture. His drawing style can be straightforward or lively and cartoony. His environments are often filled with a dazzling display of light sources and theatrical value contrasts.

There is a brief interview with Lo on Alternative Magazine Online.

by Charley Parker at September 02, 2015 03:08 AM

Boy Genius Report

Jimmy Kimmel enraged a massive community of gamers, with hilarious results

Jimmy Kimmel YouTube Gaming Video

Did Jimmy Kimmel know what he was getting into when he made fun of gamers who spend hours watching other people play games on Twitch and YouTube? He probably did because the angry reaction he got from overly emotional YouTube gamers after he bashed their favorite hobby is pure comedy gold.

Continue reading...

by Brad Reed at September 02, 2015 03:00 AM

India Real Time

Chinese Tourist Arrivals Hit New High in Sri Lanka But Will They Keep Coming?

In 2009, only around 8,500 Chinese tourists visited the teardrop-shaped country off the southern tip of India. The number of arrivals soared more than ten-fold to 128,000 last year.

by Uditha Jayasinghe at September 02, 2015 03:00 AM

Zero Hedge

Sheep Led To The Slaughter: The Muzzling Of Free Speech In America

Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“If the freedom of speech be taken away, then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter.”—George Washington

The architects of the American police state must think we’re idiots.

With every passing day, we’re being moved further down the road towards a totalitarian society characterized by government censorship, violence, corruption, hypocrisy and intolerance, all packaged for our supposed benefit in the Orwellian doublespeak of national security, tolerance and so-called “government speech.”

Long gone are the days when advocates of free speech could prevail in a case such as Tinker v. Des Moines. Indeed, it’s been 50 years since 13-year-old Mary Beth Tinker was suspended for wearing a black armband to school in protest of the Vietnam War. In taking up her case, the U.S. Supreme Court declared that students do not “shed their constitutional rights to freedom of speech or expression at the schoolhouse gate.”

Were Tinker to make its way through the courts today, it would have to overcome the many hurdles being placed in the path of those attempting to voice sentiments that may be construed as unpopular, offensive, conspiratorial, violent, threatening or anti-government.

Consider, if you will, that the U.S. Supreme Court, historically a champion of the First Amendment, has declared that citizens can exercise their right to free speech everywhere it’s lawful—online, in social media, on a public sidewalk, etc.—as long as they don’t do so in front of the Court itself.

What is the rationale for upholding this ban on expressive activity on the Supreme Court plaza?

“Allowing demonstrations directed at the Court, on the Court’s own front terrace, would tend to yield the…impression…of a Court engaged with — and potentially vulnerable to — outside entreaties by the public.”

Translation: The appellate court that issued that particular ruling in Hodge v. Talkin actually wants us to believe that the Court is so impressionable that the justices could be swayed by the sight of a single man, civil rights activist Harold Hodge, standing alone and silent in the snow in a 20,000 square-foot space in front of the Supreme Court building wearing a small sign protesting the toll the police state is taking on the lives of black and Hispanic Americans.

My friends, we’re being played for fools.

The Supreme Court is not going to be swayed by you or me or Harold Hodge.

For that matter, the justices—all of whom hale from one of two Ivy League schools (Harvard or Yale) and most of whom are now millionaires and enjoy such rarefied privileges as lifetime employment, security details, ample vacations and travel perks—are anything but impartial.

If they are partial, it is to those with whom they are on intimate terms: with Corporate America and the governmental elite who answer to them, and they show their favor by investing in their businesses, socializing at their events, and generally marching in lockstep with their values and desires in and out of the courtroom.

To suggest that Harold Hodge, standing in front of the Supreme Court building on a day when the Court was not in session hearing arguments or issuing rulings, is a threat to the Court’s neutrality, while their dalliances with Corporate America is not, is utter hypocrisy.

Making matters worse, the Supreme Court has the effrontery to suggest that the government can discriminate freely against First Amendment activity that takes place within a government forum. Justifying such discrimination as “government speech,” the Court ruled that the Texas Dept. of Motor Vehicles could refuse to issue specialty license plate designs featuring a Confederate battle flag because it was offensive.

If it were just the courts suppressing free speech, that would be one thing to worry about, but First Amendment activities are being pummeled, punched, kicked, choked, chained and generally gagged all across the country.

The reasons for such censorship vary widely from political correctness, safety concerns and bullying to national security and hate crimes but the end result remains the same: the complete eradication of what Benjamin Franklin referred to as the “principal pillar of a free government.”

Officials at the University of Tennessee, for instance, recently introduced an Orwellian policy that would prohibit students from using gender specific pronouns and be more inclusive by using gender “neutral” pronouns such as ze, hir, zir, xe, xem and xyr, rather than he, she, him or her.

On many college campuses, declaring that “America is the land of opportunity” or asking someone “Where were you born?” are now considered microaggressions, “small actions or word choices that seem on their face to have no malicious intent but that are thought of as a kind of violence nonetheless.”  Trigger warnings are also being used to alert students to any material or ideas they might read, see or hear that might upset them.

More than 50 percent of the nation’s colleges, including Boston University, Harvard University, Columbia University and Georgetown University, subscribe to “red light” speech policies that restrict or ban so-called offensive speech, or limit speakers to designated areas on campus. The campus climate has become so hypersensitive that comedians such as Chris Rock and Jerry Seinfeld refuse to perform stand-up routines to college crowds anymore.

What we are witnessing is an environment in which political correctness has given rise to “vindictive protectiveness,” a term coined by social psychologist Jonathan Haidt and educational First Amendment activist Greg Lukianoff. It refers to a society in which “everyone must think twice before speaking up, lest they face charges of insensitivity, aggression or worse.”

This is particularly evident in the public schools where students are insulated from anything—words, ideas and images—that might create unease or offense. For instance, the thought police at schools in Charleston, South Carolina, have instituted a ban on displaying the Confederate flag on clothing, jewelry and even cars on campus.

Added to this is a growing list of programs, policies, laws and cultural taboos that defy the First Amendment’s safeguards for expressive speech and activity. Yet as First Amendment scholar Robert Richards points out, “The categories of speech that fall outside of [the First Amendment’s] protection are obscenity, child pornography, defamation, incitement to violence and true threats of violence. Even in those categories, there are tests that have to be met in order for the speech to be illegal. Beyond that, we are free to speak.”

Technically, Richards is correct. On paper, we are free to speak.

In reality, however, we are only as free to speak as a government official may allow.

Free speech zones, bubble zones, trespass zones, anti-bullying legislation, zero tolerance policies, hate crime laws and a host of other legalistic maladies dreamed up by politicians and prosecutors have conspired to corrode our core freedoms.

As a result, we are no longer a nation of constitutional purists for whom the Bill of Rights serves as the ultimate authority. As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we have litigated and legislated our way into a new governmental framework where the dictates of petty bureaucrats carry greater weight than the inalienable rights of the citizenry.

It may seem trivial to be debating the merits of free speech at a time when unarmed citizens are being shot, stripped, searched, choked, beaten and tasered by police for little more than daring to frown, smile, question, challenge an order, or just breathe.

However, while the First Amendment provides no tangible protection against a gun wielded by a government agent, nor will it save you from being wrongly arrested or illegally searched, or having your property seized in order to fatten the wallets of government agencies, without the First Amendment, we are utterly helpless.

It’s not just about the right to speak freely, or pray freely, or assemble freely, or petition the government for a redress of grievances, or have a free press. The unspoken freedom enshrined in the First Amendment is the right to think freely and openly debate issues without being muzzled or treated like a criminal.

Just as surveillance has been shown to “stifle and smother dissent, keeping a populace cowed by fear,” government censorship gives rise to self-censorship, breeds compliance and makes independent thought all but impossible.

In the end, censorship and political correctness not only produce people that cannot speak for themselves but also people who cannot think for themselves. And a citizenry that can’t think for itself is a citizenry that will neither rebel against the government’s dictates nor revolt against the government’s tyranny.

The end result: a nation of sheep who willingly line up for the slaughterhouse.

The cluttered cultural American landscape today is one in which people are so distracted by the military-surveillance-entertainment complex that critical thinkers are in the minority and frank, unfiltered, uncensored speech is considered uncivil, uncouth and unacceptable.

That’s the point, of course.

The architects, engineers and lever-pullers who run the American police state want us to remain deaf, dumb and silent. They want our children raised on a vapid diet of utter nonsense, where common sense is in short supply and the only viewpoint that matters is the government’s.

We are becoming a nation of idiots, encouraged to spout political drivel and little else.

In so doing, we have adopted the lexicon of Newspeak, the official language of George Orwell’s fictional Oceania, which was “designed not to extend but to diminish the range of thought.” As Orwell explained in 1984, “The purpose of Newspeak was not only to provide a medium of expression for the world-view and mental habits proper to the devotees of IngSoc [the state ideology of Oceania], but to make all other modes of thought impossible.”

If Orwell envisioned the future as a boot stamping on a human face, a fair representation of our present day might well be a muzzle on that same human face.

If we’re to have any hope for the future, it will rest with those ill-mannered, bad-tempered, uncivil, discourteous few who are disenchanted enough with the status quo to tell the government to go to hell using every nonviolent means available.

However, as Orwell warned, you cannot become conscious until you rebel.










by Tyler Durden at September 02, 2015 02:45 AM

Boy Genius Report

Apple almost signed Bill Simmons to an exclusive content deal

Bill Simmons Apple

From music to TV and now, apparently, podcasting, Apple has a growing interest in bringing exclusive content to its iOS ecosystem. Yesterday, Variety published a report stating that Apple this year made "an unprecedented bid" to lure in the former hosts of Top Gear.

And now comes word via Re/Code that Apple a few months back considered signing Bill Simmons to an exclusive podcast deal following his unceremonious firing from ESPN this past May.

Continue reading...

by Yoni Heisler at September 02, 2015 02:15 AM

Zero Hedge

It's The Fed, Stupid; Why Kuroda And Draghi Are No Match For Quantitative Tightening

Earlier today, Deutsche Bank - who last week won the sellside race to coin a new term for the unfolding EM FX reserve unwind - took a close look at the end of the "Great Accumulation" and what it means for asset prices and DM monetary policy going forward. Here was Deutsche Bank’s "profound" takeaway:

Less reserve accumulation should put secular upward pressure on both global fixed income yields and the USD. Many studies have found that reserve buying has reduced both bund and US treasury yields by more than 100bps. 

 

Declining FX reserves should place upward pressure on developed market yields given that the bulk of reserves are allocated to fixed income. 

 

This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. The path to “normalization” will likely remain slow and fraught with difficulty.

But that, as it turns out, is not all. 

As you might imagine, EM capital flows have tracked the Fed, BOJ, and the ECB’s balance sheets quite closely (albeit with a lead) in the post-crisis, QE-dominated world.

What’s interesting however, is that there now appears to be a disconnect:

What accounts for that, you ask? Well, according to DB (and this isn't exactly surprising) the simple fact is that EM inflows/outflows are far more dependent on the Fed than they are on the BOJ and ECB and that means that a dovish Kuroda and Draghi will be no match for an even semi-hawkish Fed and that could be very bad news for EM flows considering how far ahead the Fed is in terms of approaching a rate hike cycle and considering, as we noted earlier, that DB's previous answer to the EM FX reserve liquidation quandary was that perhaps "other central banks [will] come in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving [as] China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates". From DB:

Given the reliance of EM reserves on QE-enabled financial flows since the 2008 crisis, the speed of reversal should be a key driver of reserves trends going forward. EM capital flows have indeed had a strong relationship with G3 central bank balance sheet growth with a two-quarter lead (Figure 15), given that market pricing anticipates shifts in QE. Projecting G3 balance sheet trends thus offers some clues. In our most hawkish scenario, the Fed stops reinvestment by mid- 2016 and the ECB and BoJ stop QE by September and December 2016, respectively. A more dovish scenario might see the Fed reinvesting ad infinitum and the ECB and BoJ extending QE purchases until end-2017.

Worryingly, EM capital flows are already significantly undershooting the projection from the hawkish scenario. A constructive take on this would be that EM outflows have overreacted and could give way to inflows again as global liquidity conditions remain more accommodative than feared. The less constructive view is that the Fed balance sheet simply matters far more for EM, with liquidity provided by the ECB and BoJ a poor compensation for the Fed’s retrenchment. Indeed, Figure 16 suggests this to be the case, with EM flows tracking the fall in Fed balance sheet growth closely of late. The hawkish scenario of Fed stopping reinvestment next year would suggest that EM flows can get weaker, while even a more dovish scenario of a constant Fed balance sheet would not be enough to lift inflows again. 

 

In other words, even under DB's dovish scenario for the Fed, in which Yellen reinvests the proceeds from maturing securities forever, EM capital flows will likely remain negative, putting perpetual pressure on FX reserves. And as should be abundantly clear by now, perpetual pressure on FX reserves means the unwind of the "Great EM Accumulation" continues unabated until either the Fed launches QE4 or else stands by while the world's emerging economies burn through their cushions and careen into crisis. 

Finally - as noted earlier in "ABN Amro Warns There Is A 40% Chance Mario Draghi Expands ECB QE As Soon As This Week" - while we agree with ABN that the ECB may indeed boost QE in a rerun of what the BOJ did in the great Halloween massacre of 2014, it would be largely a non-event, as the ECB biggest limitation remains the availability of monetizable assets. As such, any real monetary offset to the Reverse QE that is about to be unleashed now that the "Great Accumulation" is over, is and will always be the Fed. For a quick explanation of this, re-read "Why QE4 Is Inevitable."










by Tyler Durden at September 02, 2015 02:15 AM

craigslist | computer gigs in san diego

Web Copywriter Person WANTED

Looking for a Web Copywriter in East County to produce web copy for a musical instrument manufacturer. The Copywriting that we are looking for is written content conveyed through online media and print materials. This Copy is content that we would p [...]

September 02, 2015 02:11 AM

Across the Curve

Mechanics of Tightening Will Lead to Even Stronger Dollar

Bloomberg News with an insightful article on how the mechanics of the long awaited Fed tightening will work to strengthen the dollar. The authors cite the increase of the Fed’s internal reverse repo pool (which is a cache of central bank money) and note that its growth signifies robust demand for safe haven assets. That pool of money is currently at about $165 billion. In my days at the Open Market Desk that pool of money was generally about $1billion. (In those days it was referred to as the customer related RP and on the days in which it acted against reserve flows it was internally absorbed.)

Via Bloomberg:

The U.S. dollar has risen 17 percent against the euro over the past year, as the Federal Reserve has drawn closer to raising interest rates for the first time since 2006.

There could be further appreciation ahead for purely mechanical reasons, given the unique nature of the upcoming tightening cycle and the new tools the Fed will use to raise rates, according to Zoltan Pozsar, a director of U.S. economics at Credit Suisse Securities USA in New York.

To raise short-term interest rates with $2.5 trillion of excess reserves in the banking system, the Fed has designed an overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility that will absorb cash from non-bank counterparties, mostly money market mutual funds.

In an overnight reverse repo, the Fed borrows cash at a specified rate of interest and posts securities as collateral and then unwinds the transaction the following day. Some analysts estimate that this facility could eventually drain more than $1 trillion from the system on a daily basis as the Fed lifts rates.

U.S. money market mutual funds placing that much money at the Fed each day will free up an equivalent amount of short-term dollar-denominated instruments, such as U.S. Treasury bills, for others to invest in—including foreign reserve managers at central banks around the world.

Pozsar, who has been studying the plumbing of the modern financial system for years in positions at the New York Fed and U.S. Treasury, has just suggested in a report that there are already signs of increased interest from foreign reserve managers in dollar assets, especially given that their euros now yield negative rates.

He points to a lesser-known reverse repo facility at the New York Fed—one it operates for foreign accounts.

As of Wednesday, Aug. 26, foreign reserve managers held $163 billion in reverse repos at the New York Fed, up 44 percent from $113 billion at the end of 2014.

The rise is an indication of “reserve managers’ strong demand for safe, short-term, U.S. dollar instruments,” Pozsar writes. “But the foreign repo pool is not full allotment. Its size is determined by the New York Fed.”

The overnight reverse repo facility the Fed will use to lift rates here at home, on the other hand, will probably be full allotment—meaning the Fed will do as many overnight reverse repos with money funds as the market demands—once the Fed begins raising rates, according to Pozsar.

“A full allotment facility could lead to money funds trading out of U.S. Treasury bills, leaving more for FX reserve managers to invest in,” he wrote. “This in turn could unlock flows that are constrained by quantities at present.”

The dollar’s rise has been a source of apprehension for Fed officials as they try to figure out when to raise rates for the first time in nearly 10 years. The minutes of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s July 28-29 meeting revealed that some participants “discussed the risk that a possible divergence in interest rates in the United States and abroad might lead to further appreciation of the dollar, extending the downward pressure on commodity prices and the weakness in net exports,” which have to an extent hindered U.S. inflation and economic growth.

Nevertheless, “most participants still expected that the downward pressure on inflation from the previous declines in energy prices and the effects of past dollar appreciation would prove to be temporary.”

The risk is that big flows from foreign central banks rotating out of euros and into dollars over the coming quarters drags out this “temporary” dynamic for a while longer.

 

 

 

by John Jansen at September 02, 2015 02:09 AM

The Big Picture

elephant journal

Stitches of Love & Threads of Wisdom.

For a little while, your mommy will fret over every bug bite and scrape of your knee as though she’d committed a terrible crime. She will cry every

by elephant journal at September 02, 2015 01:50 AM

7 Eco-Friendly, Humane Fashion Brands That Are Both Stylish and Affordable.

While some people hesitate before buying pricy eco-fashion apparel, these companies make fair-trade fashion that is both stylish and affordable.

by elephant journal at September 02, 2015 01:46 AM

Zero Hedge

Circling The Drain....

CIRCLING THE DRAIN:

So last weeks turmoil is seemingly not over yet…..Was it simply a storm in a teacup brought on by another one of those market tantrums that erupt every now and again to keep everyone on their toes and eventually evaporate? Or was it a significant tremor giving pre warning of a major earthquake to follow?

WAX ON WAX OFF;

Historically September and October are not very good months for stocks and there are fundamental arguments for both sides.

The fact is that there is a lot more to worry about than to be confident of. 

There are clearly real concerns both internally and externally that the China's growth rate is running at closer to 5% than 7%, Brazil and Russia are in recession, 

Emerging market countries are suffering massive capital outflows and are burdened with huge dollar debts, Abenomics is not delivering inflation in Japan, the Eurozone is an invalid, Greece is a month away from another potential exit crisis, Europe faces a migrant crisis and the Middle East is unstable. 

 

There is plenty of reason to be concerned especially when the global economy is in the anaemic state it is despite a zero interest rate environment and huge injections of QE. At the height of last week’s crisis the proposed responses if the rout continued were for more of the same -- QE in China to be added to more QE in Japan and Europe. There was even a suggestion from the president of the Minneapolis Fed that the week’s developments potentially justified "adding accommodation". All this despite evidence that the impact of each new injection is diminishing and creating side effects that are sowing the seeds of the next financial crisis.

THE CHARTS DON’T LIE

We broke ,we rallied to the multi year trend line  and now we have retreated again…..

Weekly S&P chart:

You really dont need to be a rocket scientist;

What I have not liked from the recent move is that the fixed income market that one would expect to flatten from his point has if fact steepened…this has been down to apparent Chinese liquidation of treasury positions;

YIELDS UP / STOCKS DOWN……

With everything for sale…the next 2 months could be quite hairy

 

 

In regards to more detailed and expert options and futures advice ,volatility analysis etc ,please contact Darren Krett,Bryan Fitzgerald or John Haden through www.maunaki.com or dkrett@maunaki.com 

"Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not for everyone. Such investments may not be appropriate for the recipient. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. Nothing contained in this message may be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by, of, or from Mauna Kea Investments LLC. that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Although care has been taken to assure the accuracy, completeness and reliability of the information contained herein, Mauna Kea Investments LLC makes no warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, reliability or usefulness of any information, product, service or process disclosed.”

 










by dazzak at September 02, 2015 01:45 AM

The Myth Of A Russian 'Threat'

Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted at SputnikNews.com,

Not a week goes by without the Pentagon carping about an ominous Russian "threat".

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey entered certified Donald “known unknown” Rumsfeld territory when he recently tried to conceptualize the “threat”; “Threats are the combination, or the aggregate, of capabilities and intentions. Let me set aside for the moment, intentions, because I don’t know what Russia intends.”

So Dempsey admits he does not know what he’s talking about. What he seems to know is that Russia is a “threat” anyway — in space, cyber space, ground-based cruise missiles, submarines.

And most of all, a threat to NATO; “One of the things that Russia does seem to do is either discredit, or even more ominously, create the conditions for the failure of NATO.”

So Russia “does seem” to discredit an already self-discredited NATO. That’s not much of a “threat”.

All these rhetorical games take place while NATO “does seem” to get ready for a direct confrontation with Russia. And make no mistake; Moscow does view NATO’s belligerence as a real threat.

It’s PGS vs. S-500

The “threat” surge happens just as US Think Tankland recharges the notion of containment of Russia. Notorious CIA front Stratfor has peddled a propaganda piece praising Cold War mastermind George Kennan as the author of the “containment of Russia” policy.
 
The US intel apparatus don’t do irony; before he died, Kennan said it was now the US that had to be contained, not Russia.
 
Containment of Russia – via the expansion of the EU and NATO — has always been a work in progress because the geopolitical imperative has always been the same; as Dr. Zbigniew “The Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski never tired of stressing, it was always about preventing the – threatening — emergence of a Eurasian power capable of challenging the US.
 
Ultimately, the notion of “containment” can be stretched out towards the dismantling of Russia itself. It also carries the inbuilt paradox that NATO’s infinite expansion eastwards has made Eastern Europe less, not more, safe.

Assuming there would even be a lethal Russia-NATO confrontation, Russian tactical nuclear weapons would knock out all NATO airports in less than twenty minutes. Dempsey – cryptically – admits as much.

What he cannot possibly admit is if a decision had been made in Washington, a long time ago, preventing NATO’s infinite expansion, Russia’s concerted move to upgrade its nuclear weapon arsenal would have been unnecessary. 

Geopolitically, the Pentagon has finally seen which way the – strategic partnership – wind is blowing; towards Russia-China. This major game-changing shift in the global balance of power also translates as the combined military assets of China and Russia exceeding NATO’s.

In terms of military power Russia has superior offensive and defensive missiles over the US, with the new generation surface-to-air missile system, the S-500, capable of intercepting supersonic targets and totally sealing Russian airspace.

Moreover, despite short-term financial turbulence, the Sino-Russian combined strategy for Eurasia – an interpenetration of the New Silk Road(s) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) – is bound to develop their economies and the region at large to an extent that may surpass the EU and the US combined by 2030.

What’s left for NATO is to stage military strength made-for-TV shows such as “Atlantic Resolve” to “reassure the region”, especially hysteria-prone Poland and the Baltics. 

Moscow, meanwhile, has made it clear that nations deploying US-owned anti-ballistic missile systems in their territory will face missile early-warning systems deployed in Kaliningrad.

And Major General Kirill Makarov, Russia’s Aerospace Defense Forces’ deputy chief, has already made it clear Moscow is upgrading its air and missile defense capabilities to smash any – real — threat by the US Prompt Global Strike (PGS).

In the December 2014 Russian military doctrine, NATO’s military build-up and PGS are listed as Russia’s top security threats. Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov has stressed, “Russia is capable of and will have to develop a system like PGS.”

Where’s our loot?

The Pentagon’s rhetorical games also serve to mask a real high-stakes process; essentially an energy war – centering on the control of oil, natural gas and mineral resources of Russia and Central Asia. Will this wealth be controlled by oligarch frontmen “supervised” by their masters in New York and London, or by Russia and its Central Asian partners? Thus the relentless propaganda war. 

A case can be made that the Masters of the Universe have resurrected the same old containment/threat geopolitical alibis – peddled by what we could dub the Brzezinski/Stratfor connection — to cover, or conceal, another stark fact.

And the fact is that the real reason for Cold War 2.0 is New York/London financial power suffering a trillion dollar-plus loss when President Putin extracted Russia from their looting schemes.

And the same applies to the entire Kiev coup — forced through by the same New York/London financial powers to block Putin from destroying their looting operations in Ukraine (which, by the way, proceed unabated, at least in the agricultural domain).

Containment/threat is also deployed on overdrive to prevent by all means a strategic partnership between Russia and Germany – which the Brzezinski/Stratfor connection sees as an existential threat to the US.

The connection’s wet dreams – shared, incidentally, by the neo-cons – would be a glorious return to the looting phase of Russia in the 1990s, when the Russian industrial-military complex had collapsed and the West was plundering natural resources to Kingdom Come.

It’s not going to happen ever again. So what’s the Pentagon Plan B? To create the conditions of turning Europe into a potential theater of nuclear war. Now that’s a real threat – if there ever was one.

 










by Tyler Durden at September 02, 2015 01:45 AM

Mint.com - Personal Finance Blog, Online Money Management, Budget Planner and Financial Planning

A How-To Guide to Modern Tipping

I recently escaped to Lake Tahoe for some much needed rest and relaxation. After hours in the car with two kids, we finally arrived at our hotel, desperate to cool our heels in the pool.

And then it happened. The bellman brought our luggage to our room, and my husband and I exchanged horrified looks. He said, “Do you have cash for a tip?”

With so many of us leading cashless lives and relying on plastic these days, it’s hard to remember to tip, let alone what amount we should be tipping and ultimately budgeting for. Never fear! I caught up with Diane Gottsman, an etiquette expert and founder of The Protocol School of Texas. Gottsman shared some advice on when to tip, who to tip and what to tip.

Dining

Gottsman advises to never skip a tip. Tip restaurant servers 18 – 20 percent or more for exceptional service, and even if service is poor, speak to the manager and leave 10 percent. While tipping is standard for almost all U.S. restaurants, some big-city venues are introducing new no-tipping policies.

In-home food delivery services like EAT24 and GrubHub make meal planning a breeze, but don’t forget the driver. A delivery fee is not the same as a tip. Generally, for orders less than $20, a minimum of $3 (or more) is customary. For larger amounts, opt for 10 –15 percent of the cost of the food. Factor in inclement weather and high volume traffic during major events and holidays when calculating the tip.

When running a tab, bartenders should be tipped 15 to 20 percent of the bill or $1 per drink. And if that tip jar is staring you down at your favorite coffee shop, don’t feel obligated. If you have exceptional customer service, however, feel free to drop in .50 – $1.

Transportation

Before you jump in a Lyft or Uber, check their tipping guidelines. Uber factors tips into fares, while Lyft allows gratuity and you can tip through their app. Meanwhile, traditional taxi services should be tipped around 15 percent – up to 20 percent for assistance with heavy luggage. And don’t skip that tip for curbside check-in at the airport: $5 minimum for one bag, $2-$3 per bag for multiple bags.

Lodging

If Airbnb is your preferred style for lodging, the host does not require a tip. However, stellar feedback and reviews are always appreciated. A small gift basket or bottle of wine may be appropriate if your host went above and beyond to make your stay comfortable.

At hotels, valets should receive between $3 – $5. There’s no need to tip the hotel doorman for friendly “hello” unless they assist you with shopping bags or offer an umbrella from the front door to a taxi in inclement weather. A bellman should be tipped $1 – $2 per bag, and if you’re ordering room service, tip 15 – 20 percent of the bill. Be sure to check first to see if gratuity has been added.

Salon and Spa

Whether it’s a manicure, pedicure, massage or hair styling, tip 15– 20 percent. Always check the salon tipping policy. Some businesses don’t accept tips, some are cash only, while others may include the gratuity in your bill.

Gottsman adds, “The ceremony of tipping never goes out of style. It’s always appropriate to make sure the person who provides you with a service, whether it be in hospitality, travel, or beauty is appropriately tipped.”

Do you have a tipping quandary that Mint can help with? Ask us on Twitter at @mint, and you may see yourself on the blog!

by Holly Perez at September 02, 2015 01:35 AM

Boy Genius Report

The latest Waze update brings Stephen Colbert’s soothing voice to you daily drive

Stephen Colbert Waze Voice

Every once in a while, we'll discuss the ongoing battle between Google Maps and Apple's Maps app, but there's an alternatively that many of you probably prefer. Waze is one of the best GPS apps on the market, and on Tuesday, it added a few familiar voices to its rolling selection of celebrity guests.

Continue reading...

by Jacob Siegal at September 02, 2015 01:30 AM

elephant journal

I Can’t Adult, but I’m not Failing at Life.

Of course, being a plant serial-killer wasn’t the cause of my anxiety attack. I was freaking out because if I couldn’t even keep a plant alive, how the

by elephant journal at September 02, 2015 01:25 AM

Zero Hedge

Chinese Stocks Open Down Hard As PBOC Strengthens Yuan By Most Since 2010 & Default Risk Hits 2-Year High

From the moment Japan opened, USDJPY buying took off (standard 100 pip rip on absolutely no news whatsoever) as yet another manipulated market breathed new life into equity longs dreams. That 'help' combined with the fact that, as SCMP's George Chen reports, 50 China brokerages will jointly contribute 100 bln RMB capital to the government margin finance agency to start "new round of market rescue" provided some stability after US markets' collapse. However, tonight's big news appears to be a major crackdown on leverage as MNI notes regulators ordering brokerage houses to clear all non-official margin trading services - not just halting new clients but also closing existing accounts. Chinese stocks are opening modestly lower as PBOC fixes Yuan stronger for the 4th day in a row. Finally, China credit risk has spiked to 2-year highs as traders increase positions dramatically. The manipulation will continue through tomorrow at least when Parade Week peaks, so buckle up.

 

Japan "rescued"... "Mysterious"? - Large USD/JPY Buyer Seen Before Nikkei Index Opened: Traders

 

China "Stability?"

 

Though some weakness at the Chinese open:

  • *FTSE CHINA A50 SEPT. FUTURES DROP 0.7% IN SINGAPORE
  • *CHINA'S CSI 300 STOCK-INDEX FUTURES FALL 2.2% TO 2,939.8

 

  • *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX SET TO OPEN 4.4% LOWER

And then PBOC Strengthens Yuan:

  • *CHINA SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT 6.3619 AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR
  • *CHINA RAISES YUAN REFERENCE RATE FOR FOURTH DAY

And loses controil of money markets:

  • *CHINA OVERNIGHT MONEY-MARKET RATE RISES 18 BPS TO 2%

 

This is the biggest 4-day strengthening in 5 years!

But tonight's big news appears be a major clampdown on margin trading (as MNI reports),

China's stock market regulator has issued a circular ordering brokerage houses to clear all non-official margin trading services jointly provided with a third party -- not just halting new clients but also closing existing accounts.

 

Chinese brokerage houses were allowed to offer margin trading services in 2010 but strong stock market performance since last year saw many third parties also providing margin trading services with help from brokerage houses. Beijing realized the potential threat of these fast-growing margin trading services, particularly unofficial ones, and started to push for market deleveraging in late-June this year, contributing to the stock market rout which saw Shanghai Composite Index lose nearly 40% since.

Even as margin debt drops to a fresh 9-month low...

  • *SHANGHAI MARGIN DEBT BALANCE FALLS FOR 11TH STRAIGHT DAY

 

The very same brokerages that are seeing executives detained and are being told to shut down margin trading have also provided funds for rescuing the government market...

Chinese brokerage houses are providing more funds to the China Securities Finance Corp for stock market intervention.

 

Many listed brokerage houses issued statements last night saying they were giving no more than 20% of their net assets to CSFC, which will use the money to set up a special account for investment in blue chip stocks. These firms include CITIC Securities, which said it's giving another CNY5.4 billion to CSFC. CITIC Securities is at the center of a regulatory storm as many of its senior executives are being investigated by police and Chinese investors have been questioning if CITIC was a key player among short sellers that caused the recent stock market rout.

 

Besides CITIC, several other brokerage houses which are contributing new funds to CSFC, have also said they are being investigated by the stock market regulator.

Followed by more talk..

  • *CHINA EXPORTS MAY RISE 2% IN 2015; IMPORTS SEEN DOWN 10%: NEWS
  • *CHINA HAS ROOM FOR FURTHER RATES, RRR CUTS: SECURITIES NEWS
  • *CHINA SHOULD MAKE FUND TO SUPPORT SMALL CO. MARKET-ORIENTED: LI
  • *CHINA PREMIER LI KEQIANG COMMENTS ON 60B YUAN SMALL CO. FUND

Then - now that China is flush with cash again apparently, it decided to help out Venezuela...

  • *VENEZUELA SIGNS $5B LOAN W/CHINA TO BOOST OIL PRODUCTION:MADURO

But, not everyone is happy, as Bloomberg reports,

China-focused hedge funds probably had their worst month in almost 16 years in August, with firms including Orchid Asia Group Management and APS Asset Management Pte suffering losses from the nation’s stock market collapse.

 

“Greater China hedge funds are on track to show the worst three month returns in at least a decade,” said Mohammad Hassan, an analyst with Eurekahedge in Singapore. “It’s not a surprise given the funds’ limited ability to short the stock markets in China.”

And finally, it appears traders are hedging China credit risk in size...

Open positions in China’s credit-default swaps increased by 212 contracts to 9,444 in the week ended Aug. 28, according to latest data from DTCC.

 

 

 

That’s the biggest increase among global sovereign CDS; gross notional amount rose $1.31b last week

 

 

Among Asian sovereigns, South Korea’s CDS had second-biggest increase in positions last week, with outstanding amount up 137 contracts, or $1.10b in gross notional value

Charts: Bloomberg










by Tyler Durden at September 02, 2015 01:21 AM

jwz

Conspira-Sea Cruise

During this incredible, mind-blowing, truth-telling, spiritually enriching event, we will do our best to uncover the truth about things conspiratorial, including:

GMOs, Monsanto, bee colony collapse, ecology, global warming, climate change, fracking, HIV, autism, big pharma, medical suppression, vaccinations, flouridation, political corruption, government corruption, forbidden archeology, forbidden religion, Federal Reserve, truth about money, World Bank, IRS, strawman, property title, admiralty law, martial law, Bohemian Grove, Skull and Bones, JFK, cover-ups, September 11, Star Wars agenda, nuclear plants, chemtrails, HAARP, crop circles, IRS, MK-Ultra, Fukashima, NASA, NSA, Bilderbergs, sustainability, military industrial complex, pentagon, Waco, Malaysia 370, Pan Am 103, TWA 800, Gulf Oil Spill, Halliburton, Obama, Ruby Ridge, OK City, Vatican, New World Order, false flags, Montauk, privacy, surveillance, Area 51, Dulce, Project Rainbow, Nazi Bell, Vrill, U.S.S. Eldridge, Iron Mountain, psyops, population mangement, subliminal ads, Nibiru / Planet X, Cointel Pro, technology suppression, entity possession, electoral fraud, identity chips, 2nd amendment, and so much more.

Plus we will explore how to heal ourselves and others, and to attain self-mastery and greater integrity through:

Spirituality, meditation, affirmation, prayer, yoga, manifestation, self-development, holistic health, alternative lifestyles, organic foods, healthy living, wellness, self-sufficiency, prosperity, sustainability, freedom, human rights, discernment, wisdom, awakening, longevity, inner guidance, and inner peace.

This cruise will not only uncover the lies. It will show us the truth. As we dispell the darkness, and shine the light of wisdom, we enter the true light of consciousness.

And we are set free.

ALL are welcome to discover the real truth, together.

IMPORTANT NOTE: This seminar-at-sea does not promote any particular religious beliefs or creeds. it is about developing our own inner knowing of truth.

Previously.

by jwz at September 02, 2015 01:15 AM

Mark your calendars

Upcoming events of note:

Thu, Sep 03:   On An On @ Popscene
Fri, Sep 04:   Allie X @ Rickshaw Stop
Sat, Sep 12:   Happy Fangs @ Bottom of the Hill
Sun, Sep 13:   Houndmouth @ DNA Lounge
Tue, Sep 15:   Superhumanoids @ Rickshaw Stop
Thu, Sep 17:   Thrill Kill Kult @ DNA Lounge
Fri, Sep 18:   Joywave @ Popscene
Fri, Sep 18:   Dollyrots @ Bottom of the Hill
Fri, Sep 18:   Severed Heads @ Elbo Room
Mon, Sep 21:   Coathangers @ Rickshaw Stop
Wed, Sep 23:   Say Lou Lou @ The Independent
Fri, Sep 25:   Cyberdelia @ DNA Lounge
Sat, Sep 26:   Oh Land @ The Independent
Wed, Sep 30:   Alina Baraz @ DNA Lounge
Thu, Oct 01:   Parade Of Lights @ Rickshaw Stop
Fri, Oct 02:   Duran Duran @ Greek Theatre
Tue, Oct 06:   Say Hi @ The Independent
Wed, Oct 07:   Garbage @ Fox
Thu, Oct 15:   Wolf Alice @ The Chapel
Fri, Oct 16:   Autechre @ Mezzanine
Sun, Oct 18:   Wax Idols @ Bottom of the Hill
Mon, Oct 19:   Bully @ Rickshaw Stop
Fri, Oct 23:   Go Betty Go @ DNA Lounge
Fri, Oct 30:   All Hallow's Eve @ DNA Lounge

What have you got?

by jwz at September 02, 2015 01:06 AM

Wired Top Stories

Watch the Next Three Astronauts Launch to the ISS

Watch the Next Three Astronauts Launch to the ISS

NASA will stream the launch live starting at 11:45 PM east coast time.

The post Watch the Next Three Astronauts Launch to the ISS appeared first on WIRED.











by Sarah Zhang at September 02, 2015 01:03 AM

Econbrowser

Guest Contribution: “Capital Controls in Brazil: Effective”

Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Marcos Chamon, Senior Economist in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund, and Márcio Garcia, Associate Professor of Economics at PUC-Rio. The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its management, nor its Executive Board.


Emerging markets have experienced a strong recovery in capital inflows in the aftermath of the systemic sudden stop in late 2008-early 2009. Flows reached levels comparable to their pre-crisis peak, driven by a combination of relatively favorable fundamentals in emerging markets and a “search for yield” in the context of low interest rates in advanced economies. These flows should, in principle, bring numerous benefits, but they may also bring risks. One concern is that massive inflows can lead to a strong appreciation of the exchange rate and loss of competitiveness of the tradable sector. Given large adjustment costs, a strong but temporary appreciation may cause lasting damage to industries which may not recover even after the flows abate and the exchange rate returns to its equilibrium level. Large inflows can also complicate macroeconomic management by further stimulating an already overheating economy, particularly if efforts to control inflation through higher interest rates attract more inflows. On the prudential side, there are concerns that flows may be associated with risky external liability structures, and more generally that the flows may not be directed to productive uses, and end-up fueling consumption booms and asset price bubbles instead.

Brazil has been one of the leading countries in this effort to manage inflows, and one of the most vocal against the loose monetary policy in advanced economy policies that are pushing capital towards emerging markets (the Brazilian finance minister, Guido Mantega, coined the term “currency wars”). It sought to limit inflows in the aftermath of the crisis, adopting taxes on portfolio inflows in October 2009. Over the following two years, Brazil adopted a series of other measures to discourage inflows, starting gradually to dismantle them in 2012.

The recent Brazilian experience provides an ideal context to study the effect of capital controls and restrictions. No other country with a similar level of integration with global financial markets has ever experimented as actively with market-based capital controls, placing Brazil on a category of its own.

Brazilian capital controls

On October 2009, the Brazilian government began to introduce what would become an extensive set of controls on inflows of foreign capital. It started with a 2% tax on financial transactions on foreign investments in portfolio debt and equity, collected at the initial currency conversion, similar to a Tobin tax. Several other measures followed. But since 2012, many of the controls have been relaxed or eliminated, suggesting that one more cycle of capital controls may be coming to an end (previous cycles include 1993-1998 when high interest rates combined with an exchange rate peg also attracted large inflows to Brazil).

Chamon and Garcia (2015) (forthcoming, Journal of International Money and Finance) analyze the recent Brazilian experience. We compare prices for similar financial assets available in Brazil and in the US. The first comparison is between shares traded in Brazil with their respective American depositary receipts (ADRs), which are based on the same underlying shares but are traded in the US market. If the controls have been effective, a premium as large as the magnitude of the tax on financial transactions (2%) should have risen. We find such a premium, but only at times of excess foreign demand for Brazilian shares (which typically leads to more issuance of ADRs). In the fixed-income market, the spread between the interest rate in dollars in Brazil (Cupom Cambial) and in the US is lower than the tax rate on financial transactions (6%), and temporary spikes following some of the controls tend to be short lived. Overall, we document that capital controls did produce a wedge between the Brazilian and international financial market.

But the focus of our analysis is the effect of the controls on the exchange rate. The Brazilian authorities were, as a rule, candid about the main motivation for the imposition of controls: combating the appreciation of the real. Thus, it is natural to use the developments in the exchange rate as the main criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of the controls.

The measures adopted were transparent and market-based. The inflow tax increases were announced when the market was closed and became effective on the following day, with one exception. This makes these policies particularly suitable for daily-frequency analysis, where presumably the newly announced taxes were the main financial news on a particular day. Our estimates also control for a host of variables that can affect the exchange rate (e.g. commodity prices, VIX, other exchange rates), and includes daily sterilized intervention data.

We find little or no effect on the exchange rate in the aftermath of the first several measures. While the exchange rate seems to revert from an appreciation trend following some measures, we do not find significantly strong effects even on specifications that consider longer time windows for the first measures. But the exchange rate seems to respond strongly to the last restrictions adopted, beginning with a tax on the notional amount of derivatives. Our estimates point to a response of 10 percent or more, even after controlling for other variables that affect the exchange rate. While our approach allows us to estimate that effect, it does not allow us to disentangle the particular channels through which the controls operated. This strong response may be the result of a cumulative effect of the several restrictions. That is, the response may have been large because the last measures finally closed the main remaining channels to bypass the inflow taxes. That result may also have been supported by the beginning of a monetary policy easing cycle.

Our results are much stronger than those typically found in the capital controls literature. That literature typically finds some evidence that controls affect the composition of flows (e.g. controls on portfolio flows leading to a shift towards FDI or longer maturities for which the control is less burdensome, although part of the shift may just reflect a relabeling of flows). That literature typically struggles to an effect of controls on reducing the volume of flows, and exchange rate pressures. The large effects estimated in our paper may be driven by the broad and extensive nature of the measures adopted in Brazil. It is also possible that unique features in the recent Brazilian experience provided a setting with better identification prospects.

Conclusions

The recent Brazilian experience suggests that controls can succeed in depreciating the exchange rate in the face of capital inflows. But that success may require several rounds of fine-tuning to close loopholes (which can also increase the scope for unintended consequences and “collateral damage” to the supply of FX hedging for the real sector). It also suggests that controls are more likely to succeed when they are supported by an easing of monetary policy. However, there is also the possibility that capital controls may have had the effect of lowering capital inflows even when they are needed. Brazil savings rate is only 16%, and capital inflows are needed to finance investment.


This post written by Marcos Chamon and Márcio Garcia.

by Menzie Chinn at September 02, 2015 01:02 AM

NYT > Economy

Economic Scene: Donald Trump’s Shaky Grasp of the Immigration Situation

That border wall already exists, but demographics and other factors have significantly shrunk the population of Mexicans who want to cross it.









by EDUARDO PORTER at September 02, 2015 01:02 AM

SANS Internet Storm Center, InfoCON: green

ISC StormCast for Wednesday, September 2nd 2015 http://isc.sans.edu/podcastdetail.html?id=4639, (Wed, Sep 2nd)

(c) SANS Internet Storm Center. https://isc.sans.edu Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 United States License.

September 02, 2015 01:00 AM

NYT > Economy

Uber Rebuffed by Judge in Ruling on Drivers’ Suit

A lawsuit challenging the ride-hailing service’s designation of drivers as contract workers, not employees, will be heard as a class action.









by MIKE ISAAC at September 02, 2015 12:51 AM

craigslist | computer gigs in san diego

HOME OFFICE ASSISTANT P/T (South Oceanside)

Perfect for young student who is SMART and wants to earn extra CASH. Semi-Retired Real Estate & Mortgage Broker looking for HOME OFFICE ASSISTANT P/T to help me with organizing my administrative and clerical workload. I use a PC Windows 10 for this [...]

September 02, 2015 12:50 AM

Need Experienced UX/UI Designer for two Website Development Projects (La Jolla)

We're looking for an experienced freelance website UX designer to provide direction and documentation on a couple of marketing/brochure websites (no complicated backend or user portals, just informational websites). Experience working with agencies [...]

September 02, 2015 12:50 AM

elephant journal

Mindfulness: Training to Live with the “Intimacy of all Things.”

The collapse of our environmental systems and the emergence of climate chaos is the direct result of the human mind that sees everything as an object to be owned and

by elephant journal at September 02, 2015 12:45 AM

Boy Genius Report

How many Ashley Madison users were flirting with fembots?

Ashley Madison Hack Robot Users

Ashley Madison is claiming that millions of real women regularly use its website to help them have affairs. But if that's the case, why do so many of the website's robo-users disproportionately send messages to male users? Gizmodo's Annalee Newitz has done some more detective work on the leaked Ashley Madison data and has discovered that the website has had its bots send more than 20 million messages to men while sending less than 2,000 such robo-messages to women. Meanwhile, Ashley Madison's bots engaged in instant message chats with men more than 11 million times and chatted with women on the site just 2,400 times.

Continue reading...

by Brad Reed at September 02, 2015 12:45 AM

craigslist | computer gigs in san diego

$10.00/hour ~ (5) Data Entry Clerks (San Diego (Kearny Mesa))

(5) Data Entry Clerks - San Diego, CA 92123 Start tomorrow 9/2 at 10AM. Thursday 9/3 from 8-5 and Friday 9/4 from 8-5. The assignment will end Friday afternoon. 3-day temporary Data Entry assignment at very large electronics corporation. Hourly rat [...]

September 02, 2015 12:41 AM

Across the Curve

Bloomberg Layoffs

Via the NYTimes:

Bloomberg News laid off as many as 90 journalists on Tuesday in its newsrooms in New York, Washington and across the world, part of a plan to refocus the organization’s coverage on business, finance, economics, technology and politics.

The rationale for the dismissals was outlined in a lengthy memo to the staff from Bloomberg’s new editor in chief, John Micklethwait. In addition to refocusing on certain areas, Mr. Micklethwait said the organization would drop areas of coverage like sports and education. The memo was the first time that Mr. Micklethwait had articulated a comprehensive vision for the newsroom’s future since taking the job late last year.

About 20 journalists were dismissed in New York, about a dozen in Washington and the rest in the company’s global newsrooms, according to three people with knowledge of the layoffs who spoke on condition of anonymity. In Washington, those who were laid off were called to a conference room and given the news.

The 3,000-word memo from Mr. Micklethwait outlined a spate of changes — some organizational, some visual, and some editorial — and the thinking behind them.

Though Bloomberg will not cover finance uncritically, he said, it can distinguish itself with a “passion for business, finance and markets. So if you are not intrigued by how people make money, or are inclined to sneer at those who are good at it, or yearn to practice ‘gotcha journalism’ on investment bankers simply because they’ve chosen to be bankers, Bloomberg is probably the wrong place for you.”

Over the last six months, he wrote, he had visited many offices and begun to put changes into effect. This reorganization, he said, “is bigger — and friends and colleagues have lost their jobs. It always hurts to let talented, dedicated people go, and no journalist likes to tell other journalists that they are losing their jobs. But this is not about downsizing; it is about refocusing our considerable resources.”

Bloomberg’s purpose as a news organization, he said, is to be “the definitive ‘chronicle of capitalism’ — to capture everything that matters in global business and finance.” The focus will be on six main subjects, he said: business, finance, markets, economics, technology and power (politics and government).

Resources will, he said, turn toward “our new fast commentary team (‘Bloomberg Gadfly’), our custom morning briefing (‘Daybreak’), more data journalism, increased social media monitoring, our new markets TV show, our global radio network and better coverage of venture capital, market structure and campaign finance.”

Among those laid off Tuesday was Dawn Kopecki, a reporter in Washington who wrote an email critical of the company’s news operations that was subsequently leaked to the news media in June.

Bloomberg had aggressively investigated the leak, including reviewing videotape to try to find the culprit, to no apparent avail. Some in the newsroom suspected that Ms. Kopecki was dismissed in retaliation for writing the email. In his memo, Mr. Micklethwait said separately, and without reference to Ms. Kopecki, that the subject area she had worked in, energy and commodities, had been centralized.

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Last week, the company’s founder, Michael Bloomberg, announced in a memo to staff members that its chief of TV, Claudia Milne, hired with great fanfare in 2014, would move to special projects. She will be succeeded by Al Mayers, who has run the organization’s radio operations, Mr. Bloomberg said in the memo.

Since Mr. Bloomberg returned in September 2014 to the company he founded, after three terms as mayor of New York, he has made both sweeping and minute changes to its media operations, part of an apparent effort to reorient it toward its core consumers — the financial professionals who pay about $21,000 a year to subscribe to the information terminals that provide about 85 percent of the company’s revenue.

The organization’s target audience, Mr. Micklethwait wrote, is readers, such as terminal customers, who are short of time. And so he has limited the number of longer articles, pushed a more global focus, sought to translate more articles into local languages, expanded a team that monitors social media for news, and will unveil a new look for some parts of its coverage.

“And I hope,” he concluded, “the path that we are taking is now clearer to all of you and you can see its promise.”

by John Jansen at September 02, 2015 12:40 AM

Zero Hedge

Macroeconomics Is The Root Of All Error

Submitted by Bill Frezza via The Daily Caller,

Will Fed chief Janet Yellen pull the trigger to raise interest rates in September or not? Only the soothsayers at Jackson Hole know for sure. But while the world awaits the decision, ponder this. What do the following have in common?

  • Asset bubbles fueled by monetary policy.
  • Unsustainable sovereign debts threatening government bankruptcies.
  • Government economic “cures” worse than the diseases they are supposed to treat.
  • Questionable GDP statistics.
  • Recurring bank bailouts.

Figured it out yet? They are all driven by an overweening state religion called macroeconomics.

Friedrich Hayek said it best. The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”

A pity this simple, yet profound insight remains at the fringes of a field that continues to wreak havoc in the hands of those who imagine they can design economic outcomes.

Think about it. We are currently watching global stock markets gyrate toward breakdown trying to anticipate the whims of a cloistered professor who never launched a business, never met a payroll, never shipped a product, and never won an election, yet has been empowered to determine the price of money. What’s even stranger is that people consider this normal. Ask yourself: Why do we wait on pins and needles for Janet Yellen to set interest rates yet laugh at the idea that kings once set the “just price” for a loaf of bread?

That’s where Hayek’s curious task comes in.

The human inclination to seek order in a seemingly chaotic world has long been exploited by generations of pundits, professors, and politicians eager to convince us they can impart certainty to the unknowable.

Note that I say the unknowable, not the unknown. Science has proven quite adept at exploring the unknown. That’s because as science progresses, falsifiable hypotheses that fail to make accurate predictions get discarded in favor of alternatives that do. No so in macroeconomics, whose prognostications bear an uncanny resemblance to predicting the nature of the afterlife. Rather than make continuous progress, the same discredited macroeconomic theories tend to cycle in and out of fashion depending on which court economists have the upper hand at any given time.

One cannot perform controlled macroeconomic experiments because “the economy” is not a measurable thing, like the weight of a stone or the strength of an electric field. It is merely the name we give to billions of transactions that take place across the planet, each driven by decisions made by independent actors optimizing their own well being according to their own criteria. These criteria cannot even be articulated by many of the players themselves, much less known to a third party pretending omniscience. Undeterred, practitioners of the black arts conjure up aggregates like “GDP” or “CPI,” but any honest examination of these metrics quickly leads to the conclusion that they are nothing more than political fictions that can be manipulated to suit the policy proclivities of the moment.

Macroeconomists use GDP to characterize billions of economic transactions, supposedly like a physicist uses temperature to characterize the average kinetic energy of gas molecules as they bump into each other in the atmosphere. They come up with equations linking the velocity and quantity of money to the inflation rate, or the inflation rate to the unemployment rate, designed to look like the ideal gas law PV = nRT. This fools many people into believing these soothsayers are doing science.

But gas molecules are not willful. They don’t have hopes and fears, friends and enemies, retirement savings and mortgage payments. Gas molecules don’t change their behavior when you tell them what their temperature is. The idea that you can write equations to accurately capture complex human behaviors, and then develop policies based on these equations aimed at controlling those behaviors, is what Hayek called the Fatal Conceit.

Macroeconomics reigns in the realm of the unknowable promising that which cannot be delivered to the eager to be deceived, benefitting an entrenched priesthood and the potentates they serve. Its cloaking in mathematics, rather than music and incense, gives it the requisite air of mystery to discourage questioning the guidance of its anointed sages and prophets. Unless and until we acknowledge that what these people are practicing is a religion and not a science, we will remain in its obscurantist thrall. 

When scientific laws consistently fail to make accurate predictions, we throw the laws away. What happens when predictions about the impact of macroeconomic interventions fail, such as the inability of quantitative easing to deliver anything like the results promised? There is always a macroeconomist standing by to claim “we didn’t do enough.” And so the answer to every policy failure is: “Give Us Moar!”

Thus, the goal of reformists cannot be to simply replace one set of grandees with another, but to throw the Church of Macroeconomics out of the Overton Window, so it can pass into history alongside phrenology, phlogiston, and luminiferous aether.










by Tyler Durden at September 02, 2015 12:40 AM

वाह! मनी

आठ शेयर आज कारोबार के लिए

मुंबई। शेयर बाजार निवेशक 2 सितंबर 2015 को भारती इंफ्राटेल, यूपीएल, एस्‍सार ऑयल, एस्‍सार पोर्टस, वालचंद नगर, रुशेल डेकोर, अतुल ऑटो और मैजिस्‍को पर दांव लगा सकते हैं।
भारती इंफ्राटेल को 414 रुपए के ऊपर खरीदें और 409 रुपए के स्‍टॉप लॉस के साथ इसका लक्ष्‍य 421 रुपए एवं 439 रुपए है। यदि यह 409 रुपए के नीचे रहता है तो गिरकर 395 रुपए एवं 385 रुपए आ सकता है।
यूपीएल को 528 रुपए के ऊपर खरीदें और 515 रुपए के स्‍टॉप लॉस के साथ इसका लक्ष्‍य 538 रुपए एवं 551 रुपए है। यदि यह 515 रुपए के नीचे रहता है तो गिरकर 508 और 485 रुपए आ सकता है।
एस्‍सार ऑयल को 198 रुपए के ऊपर खरीदें और 189 रुपए के स्‍टॉप लॉस के साथ इसका लक्ष्‍य 207 रुपए एवं 219 रुपए है। यदि यह 189 रुपए के नीचे रहता है तो गिरकर 180 और 165 रुपए आ सकता है।
वालचंद नगर को 138 रुपए के ऊपर खरीदें और 135 रुपए के स्‍टॉप लॉस के साथ इसका लक्ष्‍य 141 रुपए एवं 146 रुपए है। यदि यह 135 रुपए के नीचे रहता है तो गिरकर 131 और 126 रुपए आ सकता है।
एस्‍सार पोर्टस को 97 रुपए के ऊपर खरीदें और 93 रुपए के स्‍टॉप लॉस के साथ इसका लक्ष्‍य 100 रुपए एवं 105 रुपए है। यदि यह 93 रुपए के नीचे रहता है तो गिरकर 89 रुपए और 83 रुपए आ सकता है।
रुशेल डेकोर को 132 रुपए के ऊपर खरीदें और 129 रुपए के स्‍टॉप लॉस के साथ इसका लक्ष्‍य 137 रुपए एवं 143 रुपए है। यदि यह 129 रुपए के नीचे रहता है तो गिरकर 125 और 118 रुपए आ सकता है।
अतुल ऑटो को 418 रुपए के ऊपर खरीदें और 414 रुपए के स्‍टॉप लॉस के साथ इसका लक्ष्‍य 425 रुपए एवं 432 रुपए है। यदि यह 414 रुपए के नीचे रहता है तो गिरकर 411 और 402 रुपए आ सकता है।
मैजिस्‍को को 308 रुपए के ऊपर खरीदें और 304 रुपए के स्‍टॉप लॉस के साथ इसका लक्ष्‍य 321 रुपए एवं 329 रुपए है। यदि यह 304 रुपए के नीचे रहता है तो गिरकर 300 और 284 रुपए आ सकता है।

by कमल शर्मा (noreply@blogger.com) at September 02, 2015 12:37 AM

Across the Curve

Morgan Stanley Says Buy Equities

Via Ambrose Evans Pritchard at The Telegraph (UK):

Morgan Stanley has issued a “full house” buy alert on international stock markets for the first time since early 2009, effectively calling the bottom of this summer’s equity slump.

The US investment bank said that all five of its market-timing signals are now flashing a buy signal as selling-fever reaches capitulation levels.

This is a rare occurrence, typically leading to a V-shaped recovery that delivers a 23pc gain in stock prices over the following 12 months.

Graham Secker, the bank’s chief European equity strategist, said the sell-off over recent weeks is largely driven by emotion and has little to do with the underlying outlook for the world economy.

“Equities remain very cheap relative to government bonds and there remains a lot of liquidity around that is looking for a home,” he said.

The trailing dividend yield on stocks – measured by the MSCI Europe index – is currently 240 basis points above the yield on a mix of European government bonds, near its all time-highs over the past century. Such levels usually precede powerful equity rallies.

Morgan Stanley’s bold call has raised eyebrows since the bank caught the exact top of the European equity market in June 2007 using the same timing indicators, on that occasion issuing a “full house” sell alert.

It comes at a treacherous time for global investors as they try to fathom what is really happening in China and brace for the first rate rise in nine years by the US Federal Reserve, a move akin to a margin call for debtors in emerging markets with $4.5 trillion of US dollar liabilities.

“Our indicator is not the Holy Grail of investing. We think that on the balance of probabilities, the risk-reward ratio looks pretty good right now, but it is not a very good week-to-week timing signal,” said Mr Secker.

He said the current mood has echoes of 1998 during the East Asia crisis and the Russian default, when there was a nasty squall in the markets but it proved to be a false alarm for the global economy, thanks to three back-to-back rate cuts by the Fed

It is the only time the “full house” buying signal has been triggered without a recession happening first in the developed countries, but that time it was six weeks premature.

The five timing tools are: valuation, fundamentals, risk, capitulation, and a combined market indicator. Between them they capture mutual fund flows, market breadth and technical momentum measures such as the rate of change, as well as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, dividend yields and their relationship to bonds.

Mr Secker said P/E ratios in Europe are likely to be flat this year, but this is distorted by a collapse in mining, energy and commodity revenues. Median earnings are growing at almost 10pc. “Europe is now discounting no growth over the next 12 months, which looks too bearish,” he said.

Morgan Stanley said the best way to invest for the rebound is through eurozone bank stocks, beneficiaries of quantitative easing and ultra-loose money. The star country over the next two years may be Italy – surprisingly – as it begins to reap the rewards of deep reform.

The FTSE 100 in Britain is likely to lag badly yet again next year, thanks to an over-valued pound and the heavy weighting of UK equities towards oil, gas and mining companies.

However, there is plenty of scope for well-aimed rifle shots. Mr Secker likes Burberry, Next, Pearson, Hays, Vodafone, Michael Page, Schroders, Imperial Tobacco and utilities such as Centrica and National Grid, as well as TUI, with a high exposure to Europe.

He recommended “mega-cap” stocks that on average generate 42pc of their earnings from emerging markets (EM), compared with 23pc for small companies. These have been punished over the past year. “We think it’s still a little early to buy EM exposure, although that moment is getting closer,” he said.

The great worry is that China may be in deeper trouble than the authorities have let on after their failed attempts to prop up the Shanghai stock market and their ill-explained decision to ditch the country’s dollar-peg.

The heavy-handed arrest of 200 journalists, brokers and regulators for allegedly spreading false rumours and undermining public trust has further entrenched the view that Beijing is losing control.

The decision to force a respected journalist from Caijing Magazine to issue a grovelling confession on state television smacks of Maoist practices in the Cultural Revolution and amounts to crude repression of news reporting.

However, the economic picture may not be as bad as it looks, at least over coming months. While the latest data confirm that China is struggling to shake off what amounted to a recession earlier this year, it fails to clarify whether or not growth is picking up again.

The Caixin PMI index for manufacturing fell to a six-year low of 47.3 in August, but this was badly distorted by the fallout from the Tianjin chemical explosion and the closure of 12,000 factories to clear the air in Beijing before this week’s Victory Parade.

Capital Economics said the PMI index issued a false reading after the air purification campaign before the APEC summit in Beijing last year.

The Chinese property market is picking up after a deep slump, with house prices up for four months in a row. The fiscal crunch earlier this year is fading as a new bond market for local governments gets off the ground, issuing $100bn a month.

Morgan Stanley said it remains wary of China in the “short-run” but is waiting to jump back in if there is a fresh blast of fiscal stimulus.

That may be exactly what is now happening. Lou Jiwei, the finance minister, said last week that Beijing will pull forward a raft of infrastructure projects planned for next year, launching them later this year instead.

Both credit growth and the money supply are accelerating. Draconian curbs have been imposed on foreign exchange transactions to stop capital flight, easing the way for the central bank to cut lending rates further and inject liquidity by lowering the reserve requirement ratio.

A combined shot of fiscal and monetary stimulus is already in the Chinese pipeline. Yet China has lost so much credibility over the past year that the world may not believe the promise of largesse until the evidence is irrefutable.

by John Jansen at September 02, 2015 12:29 AM

Planet Android

Capture and return the crocodile to its cage in Blockodile, coming soon to Android

To be released by Likuco, Blockodile is a simple swiping game set to hit Google Play in about two weeks. The premise of the game is simple: a crocodile has escaped its cage, and is hiding atop a tower that it has built. Players are looking to retrieve the crocodile and return it to its cage, by swiping away the blocks that were used to assemble the tower in the first place.

This will cause the crocodile to gradually move from the top of the tower/screen, towards its cage at the very bottom. Players will need to be mindful of both the clock (can't let time expire), as well as monsters that are in the towers and must be avoided; they would include killer plants, hippos, and electrocuting spikes, among others.

Blockodile is set to release on September 14th, with no word yet on pricing though. We will update as we have it. In the meantime, you can check out the game via the official trailer below.

September 02, 2015 12:17 AM

elephant journal

5 Ways Siri Changed My Life Forever.

I discovered the woman behind the voice, the voice of Siri; her name is Susan Bennett. I decided to send her an email and asked her

by elephant journal at September 02, 2015 12:16 AM

Zero Hedge

Wondering Why Dow Futures Just Spiked Over 100 Points?

Wonder no more...

 

Get back to work Mr. Kuroda...

 

But remember - it's Chinese stocks that are "manipulated" - that is all.

 

Charts: Bloomberg










by Tyler Durden at September 02, 2015 12:12 AM

Across the Curve

Eclectic Stuff From Merrill Lynch

The best piece here is in the opening paragraph in which Merrill analysts proclaim the equities are now cheap to debt.

Via Merrill Lynch Research:

Key takeaways
  • While debt and equity are supposed to be two components of the same capital structure, the disconnect continues.
  • With this week’s additional equity underperformance equities have overshot meaningfully to the cheap side.
  • In contrast the high grade corporate bond market has been relatively strong since last week, including today.
FULL REPORT

  • Capital structure anarchy. While debt and equity are supposed to be two components of the same capital structure, the disconnect continues. We had highlighted the big gap between high grade corporate bond spreads and low equity volatility (Mind the gap). Not only has this gap closed, but with this weeks additional equity underperformance including especially todays nearly 3% decline equities have overshot meaningfully to the cheap side relative to credit (Figure 1). In contrast the high grade corporate bond market has been relatively strong since last week, including today where for example 10-year senior bank bond spreads were unchanged to 1bps wider. While industrial spreads anecdotally were biased wider, a lot of bonds were actually tighter on the day. Our index (c0a0) widened 1bps on the day. Furthermore, according to Trace data dealer inventories again declined notably (~$550mn as of this writing). Although these are signs of relative strength, it is obviously difficult for our tactical long to work on an absolute basis on days like today. Hans Mikkelsen  (Page 4)
  • M&A deals with funding needs. The spike in M&A volumes since 2Q of last year has resulted in significant pick up in M&A-related high grade new issue supply (Figure 3, Figure 4). We expect the M&A activity to continue to add to supply volumes going forward. In Figure 2 below we list announced M&A transactions with potential funding needs in the USD high grade bond market. Please note that we exclude deals that have already been funded. Yuriy Shchuchinov  (Page 5)
  • Stable CDX IG net positioning. Non-dealer investors net long-risk positioning for CDX IG and HY has remained relatively stable over the last few weeks despite the market volatility. Hence, between the August 7 and August 28 (the last available weekly data) the net long-risk positioning increased $0.4bn to $39.2bn for CDX IG and declined $0.3bn to $5.1bn for CDX HY. Similarly the positioning remained little changed last week, when the net-long positioning declined $3.3bn for CDX IG and increased $1.1bn for CDX HY. Yuriy Shchuchinov  (Page 6)
  • ECB preview: words now, but action to follow. Avoiding more euro re-appreciation is the short run priority the weak euro is QEs most tangible result. In our view talking dovish, i.e. unambiguously recognizing the risks to their outlook and underlining the possibility to do more, should be the ECBs first port of call for this week, while the resilience in the real economy data flow and uncertainty over the Fed stance makes it hard to get into action in September already, beyond possibly some minor tweaks to asset eligibility as a sign of goodwill. In the medium run though, we believe the negative risk to consumer prices from the China-related turmoil matters more than the adverse shock on growth. Gilles Moec, Ruben Segura-Cayuela, Sphia Salim, Kamal Sharma (Page 7)
  • CoreLogic July 2015 home prices: 6.9% YoY, 16.6% MoM. Home prices up 6.9% YoY and 16.6% SAAR MoM in July. CoreLogic reported that home prices, including distressed sales, increased 6.9% nationwide in July 2015 (YoY). The non-distressed index rose 6.7% for the same period. The monthly gain was also impressive with a 16.6% mom SAAR increase in July and a 15.8% gain in the non-distressed index. However, we caution that there is a tendency for the data to be revised lower in subsequent months (For example, April MoM HPA was revised down to 2.3% from the initial release of 14.4%). Even accounting for revisions, the recent home price data have surprised on the upside, leaving a stronger trend than we had been expecting. Chris Flanagan, Michelle Meyer, Mao Ding (Page 8)
  • Construction spending boosts tracking. Construction spending jumped 0.7% mom in July, unchanged from the upwardly revised 0.7% mom in June (revised up from 0.1% mom initially). This is above the 0.6% mom gain that consensus was expecting. Growth in May was also revised up to 2.3% mom from 1.8% mom initially. Strong construction spending data bumped up our 3Q GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp, while later in the day, strong unit vehicle sales boosted the estimate by another 0.1pp, bringing the final estimate for the day to 2.8% qoq saar. Strong upward revisions to previous months boosted 2Q GDP tracking by 0.1pp as well, to 3.8% qoq saar. Total construction spending is up 13.7% yoy in July, with residential up 15.8% yoy and nonresidential up 12.7% yoy, both robust paces. Lisa Berlin  (Page 9)
  • Slowdown in growth but still expansionary. The ISM manufacturing index inched down to 51.1 in August from 52.7 in July. This was below the expected 52.5. Although this report represents a slowdown in growth in the manufacturing sector compared to last month, an above 50-index represents expansionary territory. Lisa Berlin  (Page 9)
  • China Economic Watch: Falling PMI reading points to weakened economic activity in August. NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in August. NBSs manufacturing PMI declined to 49.7 in August from 50.0 in July, in line with market consensus. This is the lowest reading in three years. Meanwhile, the Caixin manufacturing PMI final reading was revised up to 47.3 from a flash of 47.1, versus a final reading of 47.8 in July. We think Chinas economic activity has likely weakened in August. The volatile financial markets have likely dampened investment sentiment, the slump in global commodity prices could delay industrial restocking, and temporary government measures to create parade blue likely disrupted industrial and manufacturing activity in seven northern provinces/cities, in our view. Xiaojia Zhi, Sylvia Sheng  (Page 10)

by John Jansen at September 02, 2015 12:07 AM

Calculated Risk

Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book

Auto sales and construction spending were solid, although manufacturing was weak. However the weakness in manufacturing is mostly due to lower oil prices and the strong dollar, so overall the US data has been fairly solid.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 210,000 payroll jobs added in August, up from 185,000 in July.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. The consensus is a 0.9% increase in orders.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

by Bill McBride (noreply@blogger.com) at September 02, 2015 12:03 AM

SANS Internet Storm Center, InfoCON: green

What's the situation this week for Neutrino and Angler EK?, (Wed, Sep 2nd)

Introduction

Last month in mid-August 2015, an actor using Angler exploit kit (EK) switched to Neutrino EK [1]. A few days later, we found that actor using Angler again [2]. This week, were back to seeingNeutrino EK from the same actor.

Neutrino EK from this actor is sending TeslaCrypt 2.0 as the payload. We also saw another actor use Angler EK to pushBedep during the same timeframe.

Todays diary looks at two infection chains from Tuesday 2015-09-01, one for Angler EK and another for Neutrino.

First infection chain: Angler EK

This infection chain ended with a Bedep infection. Bedep is known for carrying out advertising fraud and downloading additional malware [3, 4, 5].

A page from the compromised website had malicious script injected before the opening HTML tag. The Bedep payloadalong withpatterns seen in the injected scriptindicate this is a different actor. Its not the same actorcurrently using Neutrino EK (or Angler EK)" />
Shown above: Injected script in a page from the compromised website.

We saw Angler EK on 148.251.98.68. " />
Click on the above image for a full-size view.

Using tcpreplay on the pcap in Security Onion, we findalerts for Angler EK and Bedep. This setup used Suricata with the EmergingThreats (ET) and ET Pro rule sets. " />
Click on the above image for a full-size view.

Second infection chain: Neutrino EK

Our second infection chain ended in a TeslaCrypt 2.0 infection. Very little has changed fromlast weeksTelsaCrypt 2.0post-infection traffic. This actors malicious script was injected into a page from the compromised website. The injected script follows the same patterns seen last week [2]. ">Take another look at the image above. Notice another URL with the domain heriaisi.work before the Neutrino EK landing URL. We saw the same type of URL using heriaisi.work last week from injected script used by this actor. ">6], and it is currently hosted on a Ukrainian IP at 93.171.205.64. It doesnt come up in the traffic. Im not sure what purpose it serves, but that URLis another indicator pointing to this particular actor.

Were still seeing the same type of activityfrom ourTeslaCrypt 2.0 payload this week. The only difference? Last week, the malware included a .bmp image file with decrypt instructions on the desktop. This week, the TeslaCrypt 2.0 sample didnt include any images. " />
Shown above: A user" />
Shown above: TeslaCrypt 2.0s decrypt instructions, ripped off from CryptoWall 3.0, still stating CryptoWall in the text.

We saw Neutrino EK on 46.108.156.181. As always, Neutrino uses non-standard ports for its HTTP traffic. This type of traffic is easily blocked on an organizations firewall, but most home users wont have that protection. " />
Click on the above image for a full-size view.

Using tcpreplay on the pcap in Security Onion, we findalerts for Angler EK and AlphaCrypt. This setup used Suricata with the EmergingThreats (ET) and ET Pro rule sets. The TeslaCrypt 2.0 traffic triggered ET alerts for AlphaCrypt. " />
Click on the above image for a full-size view.

Final words

We cant say how long this actor will stick with Neutrino EK. As I mentioned last time, the situation can quickly change. And despite this actors use of Neutrino EK, were still seeing other actors use Angler EK. As always, well continue to keep an eye on the cyber landscape. And astime permits, well let you know of any further changes we find from the various threat actors.

Traffic and malware for this diary are listed below:

  • A pcap file with the infection traffic for Angler EK from Tuesday 2015-09-01 is available here. (2.08 MB)
  • A pcap file with the infection traffic for Neutrino EK from Tuesday 2015-09-01 is available here. (594 KB)
  • A zip archive of the malware and other artifacts is available here. (692 KB)

The zip archive is password-protected with the standard password. If you dont know it, email admin@malware-traffic-analysis.net and ask.

---
Brad Duncan
Security Researcher at Rackspace
Blog: www.malware-traffic-analysis.net - Twitter: @malware_traffic

References:

[1] https://isc.sans.edu/forums/diary/Actor+using+Angler+exploit+kit+switched+to+Neutrino/20059/
[2] https://isc.sans.edu/forums/diary/Actor+that+tried+Neutrino+exploit+kit+now+back+to+Angler/20075/
[3] http://blog.trendmicro.com/trendlabs-security-intelligence/bedep-malware-tied-to-adobe-zero-days/
[4] https://threatpost.com/angler-exploit-kit-bedep-malware-inflating-video-views/112611
[5] http://www.microsoft.com/security/portal/threat/encyclopedia/entry.aspx?Name=Win32/Bedep#tab=2
[6] http://whois.domaintools.com/heriaisi.work

(c) SANS Internet Storm Center. https://isc.sans.edu Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 United States License.

September 02, 2015 12:02 AM

Boy Genius Report

Google’s third-gen Nest thermostat is here: Same price, smarter software

Google Nest Thermostat Price Features

Google quietly released its third-generation Nest Learning Thermostat on Tuesday. The device is smart enough to learn what you like, and should pay for itself during its lifetime while helping you cut down on your energy bill.

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by Chris Smith at September 02, 2015 12:00 AM

September 01, 2015

Across the Curve

China Article

Excellent article via the FT:

 

David Daokui Lee, an influential Chinese economist, has argued that: “The stock market sell-off is not the problem . . . the problem — not a huge one, but a problem nonetheless — is the Chinese economy itself.” I agree with both points, with one exception. The problem may prove huge.

Market turmoil is not irrelevant. It matters that Beijing has spent $200bn on a failed attempt to prop up the stock market and that foreign exchange reserves fell by $315bn in the year to July 2015. It matters, too, that a search for scapegoats is in train. These are indicators of capital flight and policymaker panic. They tell us about confidence — or the lack of it.

Nevertheless, economic performance is ultimately decisive. The important economic fact about China is its past achievements. Gross domestic product (at purchasing power parity) has risen from 3 per cent of US levels to some 25 per cent (see chart). GDP is an imperfect measure of the standard of living. But this transformation is no statistical artefact. It is visible on the ground.

The only “large”(bigger than city state) economies, without valuable natural resources, to achieve something like this since the second world war are Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam. Yet, relative to US levels, China’s GDP per head is where South Korea’s was in the mid-1980s. South Korea’s real GDP per head has since nearly quadrupled in real terms, to reach almost 70 per cent of US levels. If China became as rich as Korea, its economy would be bigger than those of the US and Europe combined.

This is a case for long-run optimism. Against it is the caveat that “past performance is no guarantee of future performance”. Growth rates usually revert to the global mean. If China continued fast catch-up growth over the next generation it would be an extreme outlier .

In emerging economies growth tends to be marked by “discontinuities”. But what Chinese policymakers call the “new normal” is not itself such a discontinuity. They believe they have overseen a smooth slowdown from annual growth of 10 per cent to still-fast growth of 7 per cent. Is a far bigger slowdown possible? More important, would this be a temporary interruption, as in South Korea in the late 1990s crisis — or more permanent, as in Brazil in the 1980s or Japan in the 1990s?

There are at least three reasons why China’s growth might suffer a discontinuity: the current pattern is unsustainable; the debt overhang is large; and dealing with these challenges creates the risks of a sharp collapse in demand.

The most important fact about China’s current pattern of growth is its dependence on investment as a source of supply and demand (see charts). Since 2011 additional capital has been the sole source of extra output, with the contribution of growth of “total factor productivity” (measuring the change in output per unit of inputs) near zero. Moreover, the incremental capital output ratio, a measure of the contribution of investment to growth, has soared as returns on investment have tumbled.

The International Monetary Fund argues: “Without reforms, growth would gradually fall to around 5 per cent with steeply increasing debt.” But such a path would be unsustainable, not least because debts are already at such a high level. Thus “total social financing” — a broad credit measure — jumped from 120 per cent of GDP in 2008 to 193 per cent in 2014. The government can manage this overhang. But it must not let the build-up restart. The credit-dependent part of investment has to shrink.

The debt overhang is not the only reason why investment will wilt. Daniel Gros of the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies shows that the ratio of capital to output in China is on an explosive path. Remarkably, it is already far higher than in the US. If the capital-output ratio is merely to stabilise at current levels, and the economy is to grow at about 6 per cent, the investment share in GDP needs to fall by about 10 per cent. If that were to happen suddenly, the impact on demand would cause a slump. An investment share of 35 per cent of GDP (merely back to where it was in the early 2000s) would be a desirable outcome of reforms. But moving there swiftly would take a huge bite out of today’s domestic demand.

Many believe the economy is already growing far more slowly than the government admits. But the weaker the prospective rate of growth and the more uncertain are returns, the more rational it becomes to postpone investment, further slowing the growth of the economy.

The core argument for a discontinuity is that it is hard to move smoothly from an unsustainable path. The risk is that the economy slows much faster than almost anybody now expects. The government needs to work out a way of responding that does not increase global or domestic disequilibria. The best approach would be to continue with reforms, while trying to put more spending power into the hands of consumers and investing more in public consumption and environmental improvements. Such a response would be fully in keeping with China’s needs.

A discontinuity in China’s economic growth is now more likely than for decades; such a discontinuity might not be brief; and the challenge facing policymakers is huge. They need to re-engineer a slowing economy without crashing.

Moreover, the challenge is not only, or even mainly, technical. A big question is whether a market-driven economy is compatible with the growing concentration of political power. The next stage for China’s economy is a conundrum. Its resolution will shape the world.

by John Jansen at September 01, 2015 11:32 PM

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September 01, 2015 11:32 PM

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September 01, 2015 11:26 PM

Daring Fireball

Google’s New Logo

Google:

Today we’re introducing a new logo and identity family that reflects this reality and shows you when the Google magic is working for you, even on the tiniest screens.

Their old logo was goofy. This new one is simply garbage. Just right for a company with no taste.

by John Gruber at September 01, 2015 11:24 PM

elephant journal

I’m Leaving Maui (& I’m Happy about it!)

That's a statement I never expected to make! At the beginning of the year, I resolved to always choose

by elephant journal at September 01, 2015 11:22 PM

The Investment Fiduciary

Odds and Depth of Stock Market Correction

images-73As of today, all three market indices Dow Jones, Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are in correction territory, meaning they’ve all fallen more than 10%. Last time this happened was in 2011. Then I wrote an article “How Often Does Market Correction Happen?” to calm the nerve of my clients and readers.

The key insight from that article is this. A 10% correction happened every other year in history, so you shouldn’t be surprised by it, nor should you be panic. In particular, this 10% correction is kinda over-due since that last one was 4 years ago.

In addition, don’t be surprised by a 20% correction over the next month and a half. The last time we had a 20% correction was in 2009. That was 6 years ago. In history, a 20% correction happened every other five years, give and take. 

The bottom line is this, corrections are parts and parcels of the stock market. They should be expected.

Just like periodic sales announced by major department stores, the stock market has it’s own periodic sales as well, though the timing, during and depth of the sales are not announced in advance. Nevertheless, whatever you do when department store sales are going on, you should do the same when stock market “sales” are going go. 

Schedule a discovery and review meeting  if you need a second opinion of your personal finance and investment.


by The Investment Scientist at September 01, 2015 11:19 PM

Boy Genius Report

Former Apple engineer creates incredible new furniture design

Campaign Furniture Apple

When former Apple engineer Brad Sewell moved from California to Boston to attend Harvard Business School, he quickly became frustrated with the state of the furniture market.

"I had this taste in quality, Sewell told Entrepreneur, "but a budget that was like 'graduated IKEA'. There wasn't much between your disposable furniture and the really high-end stuff.”

So like many ambitious go-getters, Sewell dropped out of Harvard and created a company to address his furniture concerns. The result? An innovative new company called Campaign.

Continue reading...

by Yoni Heisler at September 01, 2015 11:15 PM

Planet Android

Pokemon Shuffle Mobile for Android is now available in the West as well

When Pokemon Shuffle was originally released last week, it was only available in a few Asian countries, mainly Japan. However The Pokemon Company has decided to release this game into the western markets as well, which means it is now available for download in the West.

For those of you not familiar with with game, Pokemon Shuffle is essentially a match-3 puzzle game with some RPG elements layered over it. Players will be trying to match 3 or more of the same Pokemon in a row in order to eliminate them from the field. This is how combat takes place as you take on other Pokemon, collecting and leveling them up as well.

Since this is a free-to-play game, it does come with an energy system as well, so you will have to deal with that. However, so far there hasn't been too much of an issue with having enough energy to continuously keep playing. The Pokemon Company has also stated that there are plenty of additional levels and Pokemon coming to the game in future updates as well.

For those of you interested in picking this game up, and couldn't because it was location locked, you should be able to now. Pokemon Shuffle is available for download for free with optional IAPs as well. While this game is compatible with most Android devices, there are some that are not compatible. So there is a small list of those non-compatible devices available on the game's Google Play listing that you can check.

September 01, 2015 11:12 PM

RubyFlow

Rubinius <3 Gitter

How and why the Rubinius team uses Gitter, and why we love it so.

September 01, 2015 11:09 PM

FFFFOUND! / EVERYONE

Atanu Dey on India's Development

Notes on GDP, money and wealth

Considering how ubiquitous talk about GDP and growth rates is, it is noteworthy that as a concept it is of fairly recent vintage. The idea of having a measure of the “income” of a country was invented by the American economist Simon Kuznets for use in a US Congressional report in 1934. The “product” part of gross domestic product refers to the production of goods and services. It is an aggregate measure — and hence a macroeconomic measure. It is a measure of the total amount of goods and services that an economy produces. Full disclosure: I am not a macroeconomist and find the subject painfully boring. But here I am only discussing the limited idea of GDP.

Why am I discussing GDP? Someone on twitter asked me a few questions related to GDP recently. Here’s a consolidated & edited text from several tweets from her:

“We know that GDP growth rate is down 4% points from 2004. But most of us do not clearly understand the impact it is having on our lives . . . What is the loss we suffer if GDP growth rate falls by 1% point . . . Also if China grows at 10% and India grows at 8%, can the huge gap be understood by ordinary people?”

The wiki article on GDP is quite good but perhaps a brief informal discussion on what it means may be of help. So here goes.

GDP refers to production. Indeed, it refers to the total amount of goods and services produced in a nation or a state.

Technical note: It gets tiring to all the time write “goods and services.” So I am going to use a technical term that I favor: stuff. Everything that an economy produces, everything that we consume, everything that we trade, etc. . . . is stuff. End of technical note.

Now, there has to be some metric to state what that total amount of stuff the economy produces. It would be easy if there was only one kind of stuff — say wheat. Then we could just say, “Economy A produced eleventeen million tons of wheat last year and that economy B produced brilligteen million tons of wheat.” Since we can easily tell that brilligteen is larger than eleventeen, we immediately know that economy B is larger than economy A. But real economies don’t just produce one thing; they produce an immense variety of stuff such as shoes and ships, and sealing wax and computers, and dentistry and dance instructions, and books, ad infinitum. To be able comprehend the size of different economies, we have to choose some measure that represents the aggregate production in a way that is meaningful and comparable across different parts of the world at any specific time time (that is known as a cross-sectional study) or for the same economy but for different times (longitudinal study) In other words, we have to choose a numéraire. If you guessed that the numéraire is money, you are right on the money.

The process goes thus:

1. They figure out how much of each kind of stuff was produced in total in a year by an economy. (Say, 4 shoes and 8 widgets. It’s a very small economy.)
2. Then they figure out the market prices at which the various kinds of stuff were sold. (Each shoe sold for $2 and each widget sold for $3.)
3. Then they multiply the numbers of (1) and with the corresponding numbers of (2) above, and add them all up to get the GDP — a great big number which is expressed in $ or rupees or whatever currency makes sense. (The GDP of our small economy is 4×2 + 8×3 = $32.)

It is a total mystery to me how the whole process takes place. An economy produces a stupendous variety of stuff, as noted before. How they figure out how much of what was produced is something I marvel at. I guess some kind of statistical sampling and reporting is involved in the process. I could find out if I really wanted to, but I don’t because I like some things to remain mysterious. It adds charm to life. Anyway, let’s move along.

So here’s the interesting point. GDP refers to aggregate or total production. Therefore it also has to refer to aggregate or total income. What we produce is what we earn as income (in the aggregate.) Certainly, at the lower levels of aggregation, this rigid identity between income and production does not necessarily hold. One can produce a lot and yet receive a low income, and vice versa.

GDP Growth

We live in the modern world. One of the features of the modern world which distinguishes it from the pre-modern world is that in our world, the GDP grows appreciably (for most parts of the world.) In the past, the GDP growth rate was so small that hundreds of years would pass by before you could sense any change. For most of human history, things used to be static. Things around you were pretty much what it used to be during your grandfather’s time, and your grandchildren would live lives hardly different from yours.

Now it is different. My life would have been unimaginable to my grandfather, and no one can imagine how different the world will be in 50 years from now. It began with what is commonly called the “Industrial Revolution” around 1750 CE. That’s just two and a half centuries ago. The amount of stuff that the people of the world started producing (and naturally therefore consuming) began to grow. Things are changing and the pace of change is accelerating at an exponential rate.

The word “exponential” is often misused but in the case of the growth rate of GDP (and related matters), it makes perfect sense because we often talk about GDP growth rate for a range of years. The amount added each year gets compounded as the years go by. If the rate of growth is, say, 10 percent a year, then the amount 100 will grow by 10 units the first year but on the second year it will grow by 11 units (that’s 10 percent of 110), and by 12.1 units the next year, and so on.

A nice rule of thumb is that a growth rate of g percent per year will double the initial amount in 70/g years. So if the GDP growth rate is 7 percent per year, the GDP will double in 10 years; if the growth rate is 3.5 percent a year, then the GDP will double in 20 years.

It is hard for us to really intuitively understand exponential growth. The difference between, say, 5 and 7 is not much to write home about. But if you are compounding something over a significant number of periods, the difference explodes. $100 grows to be $800 at 5 percent growth rate in 42 years, but at 7 percent rate of growth, the same $100 grows to $1600 in 40 years.

What If

Allow me to quote an old post which addresses your question about how GDP and GDP growth rates affect our lives:

India’s actual rate of economic growth averaged over 60 years is around 2.1 percent per year, what I call the “Nehru rate of growth” because Nehru was the principal author of India’s socialist development policy. As I argue below, it is one of the greatest man-made disasters in the world. It was totally flawed, and the misery that it caused (and still causes) was entirely avoidable. Considering the present state of India is distressing but it is useful if considered side by side with an alternative that was possible. The counterfactual has to help move us to take a different path. Later on in the series, we will discuss what we have to do.

In the alternative scenario, I used a 6 percent long-run average annual per capita growth rate. Is that reasonable? Yes it was easily possible, and what is more, it still is. India is large, just like China. In 1978, they were both at the bottom of the economic heap, neck and neck in most measures of economic development. China got lucky and its leader Deng Xiaoping (1904 – 1997) steered China out of the socialist trap and made it into a market economy open to foreign investment. China’s economic growth was impressive, to say the least. Over a period of 30 years, it grew at an average around 8 percent annual growth rate. Today China’s economy is at least four times larger than India’s.

India could have easily become a market-oriented, open economy by 1950, and had an average 6 percent annual growth rate for 60 years to become at present a middle-income country. India’s per capita annual income could have been around $10,000, ten times of what it actually is. Its GDP could have been $11 trillion, and India, instead of China, would be the largest economy in the world second to the US.

Economic growth at 6 percent annual rate works marvels. India would have eradicated poverty by 1970. Around 1950, India had around 250 million below the poverty line (out of a total population of less than 400 million.) Today it has 700 to 800 million below the poverty line. That’s what Nehruvian socialism has achieved – a tripling of the absolute number of poor people. Had India followed the alternative model, mass scale poverty would have been history in less than a generation. Today the problem of poverty is much harder to solve because the solution has been delayed so long.

Mass scale poverty has its fellow travelers. India has the largest number of illiterates in the world. India has the largest number of malnourished people in the world. Reports indicate that around half of India’s children below the age of five are malnourished. The overwhelming number of Indians do not have clean drinking water, access to toilets, access to schools, health care, . . . the list is long and heartbreaking. Rural Indians eke out a Hobbesian existence: “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.” Indian farmers are a distressed lot, and one famous journalist has made his entire career solely by reporting on farmer suicides.

There’s more to life than economic growth. Economic prosperity is not sufficient but it is definitely necessary when hundreds of millions are trapped in poverty. China provides evidence that six percent growth is possible for a large country. India had all the necessary precondition – except one – for becoming a middle-income country by now. If it had, this is what we would have had. (We will explore that one missing factor later in the series.)

If India had become a middle-income country, Indians would have read about abject poverty in history books and seen it in documentaries, not actually seen it cities, towns and villages as they do today. India would have been 100 percent literate. All Indians would have had at least graduated high school. India would have had scores of educational and research institutes ranked globally which would have attracted hundreds of thousands of students from the world over.

Indians would have been healthy and their life expectancy close to that of any developed nation. More importantly, they would have had an enviable quality life. India would have had clean, livable cities – and lots of them – hundreds of modern cities with impressive infrastructure. The structure and composition of the Indian labor force would have been mostly in manufacturing and services, and about 10 percent in agriculture. With only of small fraction of the overall labor in agriculture, farm incomes would have been sufficient to make the life of farmers worth living.

With six percent annual growth over a long period, amazing things happen. Income growth has two effects. First, it allows greater consumption. That itself is a good thing if one is below the world average (or at least below a certain minimum.) The second effect of a large income is that savings can be larger – which means that investment can be higher. What you don’t consume, you can invest. This is true both of an individual and a collective.

Individuals grow their assets with savings. They end up with houses and other durable goods, all of which makes life more pleasant and people more productive. Similarly, with higher income, national assets increase. Nations can invest in assets such as manufacturing facilities, and infrastructure such as needed for transportation (roads, ports, railways, airports), housing, water supply and waste management, power generation, heavy machinery, facilities for hospitals, schools and universities, recreational, tourism, etc. All assets have positive feedback effects: the more you have, the more productive the economy becomes, which raises incomes, which then go on to increase the investable savings for building more assets.

{That is from “Stealing is a Bad Thing — Part 5“. The post previous to that, “Stealing is a Bad Thing — Part 4” is also a good read.}

GDP measures wealth. GDP itself is denominated in money terms. Actually, all kinds of wealth is expressed in monetary terms. This is a terrible thing because people start believing money is wealth. This confusion has really terrible consequences. Next time.

by Atanu Dey at September 01, 2015 10:51 PM

GOOD

“Skin a Watermelon” Trick is Very Cool. And a Little Creepy.

Share this on Facebook?

 

With Labor Day just around the corner, there’s no better time to learn a new trick that’s sure to make an impression at any BBQ. In this video, Mark Rober shows us how to crack open a seemingly normal watermelon to reveal a totally skinned watermelon inside. It’s a cool trick, but there’s something strange about a whole, skinned watermelon that might leave you feeling a little creeped out. Enjoy!   

by Craig Carilli at September 01, 2015 10:50 PM

Wired Top Stories

elephant journal

7 Scary Truths about Practical Magic.

As long as you take yourself to be the put-upon, insulted, offended dream character, as long as you're solidly identified in your aversions and attachments, you can't work real practical magic.

by Carolyn Elliott at September 01, 2015 10:42 PM

Wired Top Stories

Judge: California Drivers Can Go Class-Action to Sue Uber

Judge: California Drivers Can Go Class-Action to Sue Uber

The decision issued today by US District Judge Edward Chen means as many as 160,000 Uber drivers in California could join the case.

The post Judge: California Drivers Can Go Class-Action to Sue Uber appeared first on WIRED.











by Davey Alba at September 01, 2015 10:41 PM

Boy Genius Report

Google Maps for Android gets a welcome navigation UI change

Google Maps Android 9.14 Update Download

Google continues to release new features for the Android version of its Google Maps application. After bringing Street View to Google Maps on Android only a few days ago, the company is out with software version 9.14, which includes a welcome update to the navigation user interface that should further improve your overall Google Maps experience.

Continue reading...

by Chris Smith at September 01, 2015 10:30 PM

Planet Python

Invent with Python: Further Reading: Intermediate Python Resources

So after reading one of my Python books (available free online here and here), you're no longer a complete beginner and would like to know where to go next. It can be hard to find intermediate-level material: stuff that isn't for total beginners or advanced computer scientists. The topics that you should google for are Python standard library, Python object oriented programming, Python idioms, and popular Python modules.

For a more concrete list of resources, here's my list of recommendations.

Continuing with Python

  • The Python Module of the Week Blog covers many of the modules in Python's standard library with practical examples. The Python standard library has a wide range of handy functions ("Guido's Time Machine" refers to how requests for features in Python would often be met by Guido van Rosum mentioning he had added it the night before.)
  • Python Pocket Reference is a short book intended for programmers who want to learn Python quickly. Now that you know basic programming concepts, this short book is a great way to fill out your Python knowledge and explore some more modules without spending a lot of time.
  • Python 3 Object-oriented Programming is a great resource to learn specifically about classes, objects, and other OOP concepts. My books skip OOP since it isn't necessary to get started coding, but once you've been programming for a while it's a must to become familiar with these topics.
  • Data science and machine learning are hot topics in the job market. Data Science from Scratch and Programming Collective Intelligence are both great introductions to these topics.
  • If you'd like to learn Python well enough to become a software engineer, Effective Python: 59 Specific Ways to Write Better Python provides a nice list of advanced (but effective) topics to read up on.
  • The Python Cookbook has several recipes for getting stuff done in Python. Reformatting text to fixed columns, determining last Friday's date, or using callback functions are all things that are possible with Python, but you don't want to waste time figuring out how to do them on your own.
  • The Hitchhiker's Guide to Python is a brilliant summary of many Python gotchas and idioms specific to the Python language.
  • Problem Solving with Algorithms and Data Structures Using Python is a good computer science textbook to exploring algorithms in a direct, readable text. It's free to read online.
  • Practicing Your Code-Fu

    Moving On to Other Languages

    Python is versatile and you can keep going down that path if you choose, but don't feel that you're somehow "not ready" to tackle a new language. If you do want to move on, here's some resources for the next step.

  • JavaScript: All dynamic behavior that happens in the browser is from JavaScript code. If you want to learn to create web apps, getting a basic understanding of HTML and CSS is recommended. The jQuery module is also standard for doing any web app development. My favorite JavaScript books are: Eloquent JavaScript (free), JavaScript and JQuery: Interactive Front-End Web Development, and (once you have some JS experience) Crockford's JavaScript: The Good Parts is the key book to read to understand the language.
  • Ruby: Ruby is a scripting language and similar to Python. It's noteworthy for the Ruby on Rails web app framework. You can try it out online at tryruby.org, and Codecademy has tracks for both Ruby and Ruby on Rails. But since you already know how to code, I'd suggest the Learn Ruby in 20 Minutes page on the official Ruby site.
  • Java or C#: These languages are fairly similar to each other. Java is the more popular one and a mainstay of software engineering jobs. C# is (essentially) Microsoft's version of Java, meant to create Windows applications. I don't have any recommendations as far as C# books, but Java: A Beginner's Guide is a decent intro. There have been plenty of slight changes to the Java language over the years, so you don't want to get a book that's more than a decade old or so.
  • September 01, 2015 10:10 PM

    AllFinancialMatters